The Hot Stove League

[paul137]

Leyland AL manager of the year.

 

Tigers manager Jim Leyland has said many times he was simply in the right place at the right time for the Tigers resurgence, but on Wednesday he received some well-deserved credit for Detroit's sudden ascension to the AL pennant when he was named the AL Manager of the Year. Leyland becomes just the second Tiger in history to win the honor.

 

Sparky Anderson was the only other Tigers skipper to win manager of the year honors, taking the award in 1984 and '87. Leyland also became the third person to win the award in both leagues, joining Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox.

[Lammycat]

 

i'll take the bets now. this guy never ends up on the redsox. it's totally a move to block him from going to other teams. paying that fee to talk to the guy and then tack on 15 million for three years, since Boris is his agent. that's like 90 million for three years. There isn't a pitcher alive worth that kind of coin.

The Sox obviously want an opportunity to sign him and are apparently prepared to pay high for his services. If negotiations fall through and it prevents him from going to the Yankees, than that's the next best thing. I believe the FO is intent on signing him for reasons listed earlier, and that some people are missing the point of it being a potentially high pay-off of an investment, even with consideration to the $figures$ being tossed around.

[bobbob1313]

I'll address this post in more detail when I have more time, but the Sox have been very conservative the last several years for reasons such as this (Matsazaka) and will still be pretty far below the Yankees payroll when this contract irons out. No doubt they have money to spend, though. And I couldn't be more pleased that they do.

 

If you take the 50 million posting fee, plus the 12 million a year to sign him, he'll cost them on average 25 Million per for 3 years of service. They are trying to get JD Drew, which will probably cost them another 10 million a year, so adding this on to the 110 million of payroll they already have locked up from last year, this puts them at 145 million without addressing the pressing concerns in the pen and middle infield.

 

I swear, Red Sox fans are so hypocritical when it comes to the Yankees. You guys pull the same crap, it's just that they don't complain about not being able to compete as they take on bloated contracts of overrated players, while that seems to be the Red Sox policy, rather than actually making smart baseball moves.

 

 

Congrats to Joe Girardi on winning Manager of the Year. I wish we had him back next year, but it's ok. Fredi Gonzalez is going to be just fine.

[Spawn's dad]

anybody can spend as much time as they want spinning the dollar figures on this deal and until he's actually in a redsox uniform I say it's total bullshit. the moeny doesn't make any sense and at 25 million a year there is no potential ROA. That's a-rod money (which was stupid) for a guy who is probably going to get shelled like the rest of the japanese league pitchers that come here.

[Lammycat]

If you take the 50 million posting fee, plus the 12 million a year to sign him, he'll cost them on average 25 Million per for 3 years of service. They are trying to get JD Drew, which will probably cost them another 10 million a year, so adding this on to the 110 million of payroll they already have locked up from last year, this puts them at 145 million without addressing the pressing concerns in the pen and middle infield.

 

The $50/51 million posting fee does not go into salary costs nor against the team payroll nor toward any possible luxury taxes, it's simply for the exclusive right to negotiate with him. It also does not figure into salary money for years down the road. Schilling has said he will play only one more year. There's money freed up there. The Sox would probably need to get rid of a few key (high-salary) players, too. In comparison to the Yankees who often make very high-cost signings year after year, the Sox have been fiscally conservative the last several years and are, apparently, willing to invest in this guy with pad money.

 

And, if the Sox and his agent can't reach an agreement, he essentially goes back to Japan and the Yankees are frozen out. I'd call it a careful investment, rather than tossing money around a la Steinbrenner.

 

ed. Not to mention that posting fee is refunded if a deal isn't reached.

 

Anyway, it could end up costing the Red Sox a lot of money. It could prove foolish down the road. It could also prove to be a very wise investment considering the benefits having a major Japanese commodity play for them.

 

ed. Not to mention that posting fee is refunded if a deal isn't reached.

[bobbob1313]

Most projections have him at about a 3.2 ERA with a 1.20 whip, 170 k's, and 16 wins. Thats based on a translation of his japanese stats to America. They say the high upside is 2.5 era, 1 WHIP and 200 k's, and the low is about a 3.7 ERA with a 1.4 whip and 140 k's. Not terrible, but not 30 million dollars a year.

[Spawn's dad]

i think the point is any redsox fan who thinks this is the savior and he's actually going to play is delusional. it's a good move they took him off the market. the potential downside is that when they waste the guy for a year japanese clubs could be far less inclined to negotiate with them in the future

[bobbob1313]

The $50/51 million posting fee does not go into salary costs nor against the team payroll nor toward any possible luxury taxes, it's simply for the exclusive right to negotiate with him. It also does not figure into salary money for years down the road. Schilling has said he will play only one more year. There's money freed up there. The Sox would probably need to get rid of a few key (high-salary) players, too. In comparison to the Yankees who often make very high-cost signings year after year, the Sox have been fiscally conservative the last several years and are, apparently, willing to invest in this guy with pad money.

 

And, if the Sox and his agent can't reach an agreement, he essentially goes back to Japan and the Yankees are frozen out. I'd call it a careful investment, rather than tossing money around a la Steinbrenner.

 

ed. Not to mention the posting fee is refunded if a deal is not struck.

 

Anyway, it could end up costing the Red Sox a lot of money. It could prove foolish down the road. It could also prove to be a very wise investment considering the benefits having a major Japanese commodity play for them.

 

I just honestly cannot see how this proves to be a smart baseball move, especially considering that every other bid was reported at about half of that one.

 

Also, to say that the Red Sox don't throw money around like the yankees is blind. What was that contract they gave Manny? What is Beckett's contract compared to his actual achievements? How much did Coco Crisp make? Or how about that 9.5 mil a year Clement is making? Or the 13 million for Schilling?

 

You say they have been "conservative with their spending, but last year they added two players with contracts over 9 million a year on average, and made serious pushes for numerous other free agents and trade targets.

 

Throwing out 90 million dollars for three years of a completely unproven commodity (who by the way, would have been far and away the most abused pitcher last year judging by the Pitcher Abuse Points stat). He's anything but a sure thing, and they are most likely going to sign him to a contract, and he will most likely be a huge bust. Sure the 50 million dollar posting fee doesn't count towards their salary, but they still have to spend the money, right?

[Lammycat]

Not to beat a dead horse here, but he's the best pitcher on the market this off-season. The Red Sox have the funds to pursue him. And as I've mentioned (and as Gammons did on PTI tonight) it would open the floodgates for the Asian market for the Sox (which is pegged to be the next hot spot for foreign players the next 20 years) and the Sox could certainly recover their enormous investment with the addition of a high profile Asian player.

 

Yeah, it's certainly not a sure thing. But no investment is.

[bobbob1313]

I'd take Schmidt or Zito over them. At least you know what you are getting, and it costs much less. I wouldn't say he's the sure fire best pitcher on the market, and not for that price.

 

Plusm, I can guarantee if this were the Yankees who made that move, you would be crying about it.

[Lammycat]

Plusm, I can guarantee if this were the Yankees who made that move, you would be crying about it.

The Yankees have made similar moves and I didn't cry. Bitched a bit, but so what? That's the nature of the beast. You'd probably understand better if your team had a similar rival.

 

 

Congrats to Girardi, nonetheless.

[MattZ]

I am sorry, but it does matter that this 50 mil doesnt go against the salary cap. If this moeny doesnt go against the cap, the 50 mil should be viewed as any other investment that a baseball team or any other company for that matter, makes in itself. R&D if you will.

 

If the Sox think that getting this guy will open the Japanese markets for them, and that sales in merchandise in Japan will quadruple, and that this will bring in money, no one here can even offer an opinion as to whether those forecasts, projections, etc. are worth it. Even if the guy becomes a fairly reliable #2 starter, if it causes every Japanese baseball fan to become a red sox fan, then this guy pays for himself. The Red Sox will get free advertising in Japan every single time this guy takes the mound. How much do you think that is worth? Not to mention the Japanese companies that will buy ad space in Fenway, etc.

 

The haters here are thinking like baseball GMs and not necessarily like business men. The Red Sox have plenty of very smart people in their front office that did a lot of work and did a lot of projections. Zito and Schmidt will not open up the Asian markets for them, so a comparison to those guys is not even relevant. This was as much a business move as a baseball one.

 

And I say this as an unbiased Mets fan.

 

And congrats to Girardi -- he certainly deserved it.

 

EDIT: and maybe the Sox needed to pay up more than the Yanks did, because the Yanks already have Matsui and a presence in Japan. The Sox are now competing with the Yanks in Japan. If the Yanks got D-Mat too, how would the Sox have any presence in Japan? This is like any other business. You have to expand into other markets. Untapped markets are where the $$$ are. That's all the Sox are doing here.

Edited November 16, 2006 by MattZ

[MrRain422]

Good point.

[Spawn's dad]

This was as much a business move as a baseball one.

 

this isn't a move, business or otherwise, yet. you're speculating as much as anyone else.

[Oil Can Boyd]

this isn't a move, business or otherwise, yet. you're speculating as much as anyone else.

That's true and he is far from signed.

 

But the new market issue is an interesting one. Last night on one of the local news channels here in Boston they were talking with an "expert" on Japanese baseball. This guy said that as soon as the Red Sox fee was accepted, there was a noticeable (to him) increase in Red Sox merchandise being advertised on websites about Japanese baseball.

[MrRain422]

It's a business move even if they don't sign him.

[Lammycat]

this isn't a move, business or otherwise, yet. you're speculating as much as anyone else.

Posting $51 million for the sole right to negotiate with him is a business move, not speculation.

 

Thanks MattZ for summarizing most of the points I apparently struggled to make yesterday....mainly the Japanese market goldmine that opens up to the Sox if the deal goes down.

[Spawn's dad]

i said the people in the thread were speculating, not the red sox. I also said the red sox were merely blocking any other team from signing him, without actually intending to part with the vasts sums of money being discussed. pretty much that remains as vaible a possibility as anything else posited.

[MrRain422]

I would imagine that just posting this fee to talk to him will edge them into the Japanese market a little bit even if they don't sign him. In which case, it would be less publicity than signing him, of course, but since they'd get the money back, it would be completely free.

[Spawn's dad]

exactly. and i think that's a pretty damn good plan. especially if they can blame their inability to sign him based on unreasonable demands by Boris.

[caliber66]

I bet, if the Red Sox post $51M for the right to talk to Matsuzaka, and then fuck him by sending him back to Japan for a year (which is what will happen if they don't agree to terms), then they won't have a serious chance of signing a Japanese star for quite some time. That, to me, makes them making an honest attempt at signing him a much more viable possibility than just blocking the Yankees from signing him.

[MattZ]

That, to me, makes them making an honest attempt at signing him a much more viable possibility than just blocking the Yankees from signing him.

 

I agree.

[chisoxjtrain]

white sox traded neil cotts for right-handed reliever david aardsma and left-handed relief prospect carlos vasquez from the cubs

[MrRain422]

Johan wins the AL Cy Young. No surprise there. It should be three in a row for him. Too bad the writers had their heads up their asses last year.

[bobbob1313]

If they don't sign him, the commissioner will be able to award the posting right's to the next highest bidder, apparently.

 

 

 

"No link yet, but apparently ESPN radio in Boston is reporting that Daisuke Matsuzaka has been signed for $45 million over 3 years. I think that's a huge mistake for the Red Sox, unless Boras simply wouldn't have it any other way (in which case I'd be shocked that the deal got done this quickly). In today's Hardball Times, David Gassko claims that Matsuzaka would be worth $22M over 3 years or $49 over 4 years, once the posting fee and possible Japanese revenue streams are taken into account. "