Politics 2020

[tinnitus photography]

Genuine question for the Bernie supporters here. If he wins, do you expect a single payer healthcare bill to actually get passed? And if so, which 60 senators will vote for it?

you could ask the same thing about gun control. it's more about starting to change the direction than pull a 180 just as you take the steering wheel.

[chisoxjtrain]

It's my policy any time someone mentions RBG as the (singular) slot that will open to remind folks that Steven Breyer is 81 years old.  

 

That's two seats that will open relatively soon. 

 

If Trump gets reelected, he will almost definitely get to replace RBG.  If he also gets to replace Breyer, that gives him a 7-2 court.  I also think if he wins, Clarence Thomas will retire so Trump can replace him with someone young, rather than waiting until a later term and gambling on being replaced by a dem.  This solidifies the 7-2 split for at least a decade since everyone else is relatively young (Alito, the next oldest, is 69).  

 

The best case scenario if a Democrat wins, barring the death of one of the justices, would be to hold the 4 seat minority.  Assuming that still exists come inauguration day.

 

That alone is far more than reason enough to enthusiastically vote for a pile of maggot encrusted dog shit with a D attached to their name over Trump.

You are absolutely correct. The Supreme Court alone was all the reason I needed to vote for Clinton in 2016.

[Doug C]

All true regarding the Supreme Court, but it currently would be 5-4 to the left, if you will, if not for Mitch McConnell.

[jff]

All true regarding the Supreme Court, but it currently would be 5-4 to the left, if you will, if not for Mitch McConnell.

 

That's true.  I will add that the emphasis should be removed from just the supreme court, since the vast majority of cases never get beyond the appellate level.  Trump and McConnell have loaded up all the federal courts with conservative judges.  Our entire judiciary would be left leaning now if Clinton had won. 

 

My area is served by the 11th circuit.  Florida, Georgia, and Alabama.   There are 12 active judges at the appellate level in this circuit.  Six of them are Trump appointees.  Half of the lineup of active judges.  For comparison, George W Bush only appointed one judge to this circuit in his eight years as president, and Obama appointed 4 (one of which has ALREADY retired...or technically became a senior judge...and has been replaced by Trump).  So Trump has outpaced 16 years of previous appointments in three years.  If Clinton had won, this court would have a 10-2 liberal slant.  As it is now, it's 7-5 conservative slant.  

[ih8music]

you could ask the same thing about gun control. it's more about starting to change the direction than pull a 180 just as you take the steering wheel.

 

I agree.  And as we (hopefully) change direction, I think we will need to take incremental steps to get there. 

 

My biggest issue with Bernie is that he's against incremental change.  Yes, his healthcare plan has a phased implementation up front, but it is with the end goal of wholesale, systemic change. 

 

I don't see him willing to support a compromise that gets us a step closer (e.g. public option) and that's incredibly frustrating to me.  It simply will never pass.

[lost highway]

 

My biggest issue with Bernie is that he's against incremental change.  Yes, his healthcare plan has a phased implementation up front, but it is with the end goal of wholesale, systemic change. 

 

I don't see him willing to support a compromise that gets us a step closer (e.g. public option) and that's incredibly frustrating to me.  It simply will never pass.

 

 

I would think he'd take some compromise, instead of nothing once he's in the big chair. That remains to be seen (or not seen at all).

 

It is a funny notion that Bernie or Warren could bring a big, bold health care initiative that could get whittled down by the legislature into something that would look more like what Biden or Buttigieg would cook up.

[Winston Legthigh]

I like the response, but what exactly was the Bloomberg campaign thinking when they tweeted?

 

[Doug C]

I agree re what were they thinking. Reich is correct, though. If Bloomberg wants to spend hundreds of millions of dollars improving American lives, he's going about in an incredibly selfish and unproductive way. So many direct things he could be doing.

[Chez]

I agree re what were they thinking. Reich is correct, though. If Bloomberg wants to spend hundreds of millions of dollars improving American lives, he's going about in an incredibly selfish and unproductive way. So many direct things he could be doing.

He's an easy and popular target, but to his credit Bloomberg has contributed hundreds of millions of his considerable fortune to causes many consider to be worthwhile.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Philanthropies

[Doug C]

He's an easy and popular target, but to his credit Bloomberg has contributed hundreds of millions of his considerable fortune to causes many consider to be worthwhile.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloomberg_Philanthropies

Thank you. That is admirable.

If he truly wants to keep Trump from getting elected, then the best use of his fortune would be paying off the fines and other costs of Florida felons so that the can vote in November. 

[tinnitus photography]

i have gotten unsolicited mail from Bloomberg three days in a row now.

[kidsmoke]

You are absolutely correct. The Supreme Court alone was all the reason I needed to vote for Clinton in 2016.

 

Same here!

i have gotten unsolicited mail from Bloomberg three days in a row now.

 

Same. 

[jff]

Thank you. That is admirable.

If he truly wants to keep Trump from getting elected, then the best use of his fortune would be paying off the fines and other costs of Florida felons so that the can vote in November. 

 

Since I mentioned the 11th Circuit earlier...

 

That court just ruled last week that felons cannot be prevented from voting because of outsanding fines:

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/amendment-4-eleventh-circuit-florida-voting.html

[Doug C]

Since I mentioned the 11th Circuit earlier...

 

That court just ruled last week that felons cannot be prevented from voting because of outsanding fines:

 

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/amendment-4-eleventh-circuit-florida-voting.html

Yes they did. I live in Tampa and am watching closely. The governor is appealing. We'll see what happens. As you said earlier, it's the lower courts that do a large part of the work.

[jff]

Yes they did. I live in Tampa and am watching closely. The governor is appealing. We'll see what happens. As you said earlier, it's the lower courts that do a large part of the work.

 

Unfortunately, this ruling doesn't entirely open the door to voting rights for all felons in Florida who have served their sentences, but it's a very loud step in that direction and should lead to that end if the next steps in the appeal process fail.  As I said earlier though, the 11th Circuit bench is 50% Trump appointees, none of whom served on the three judge panel that made this ruling.  The judges on this panel were appointed by Carter and Clinton.

[Doug C]

Haha! Pardon my laughter. It's just that we both seem to understand the issue and the 11th court makeup, etc., but we are expressing it differently. 

 

Regardless of court rulings, any multi-billionaire could make certain Florida felons that want to vote can do so by paying all fines and costs that the legislature requires. It would be a drop in the bucket for them. As soon as the legislature interpreted the meaning of Amendment 4, I said that the uber-wealthy should just pay the fines.

[tinnitus photography]

4th day in a row for bloomberg snail spam.

[jff]

Haha! Pardon my laughter. It's just that we both seem to understand the issue and the 11th court makeup, etc., but we are expressing it differently. 

 

Regardless of court rulings, any multi-billionaire could make certain Florida felons that want to vote can do so by paying all fines and costs that the legislature requires. It would be a drop in the bucket for them. As soon as the legislature interpreted the meaning of Amendment 4, I said that the uber-wealthy should just pay the fines.

 

I hope I'm not coming across like I'm disagreeing with you, or trying to school you, or anything like that.  I agree with everything you're saying, I'm just throwing in a little bit of info to expand on things in case anyone cares about this type of minutiae. 

 

And I totally agree about the wealthy politician having far better ways to spend their money than hogging up every Youtube video with annoying ads.  It'd play better as a political strategy.  Imagine how Bloomberg's campaign wold be going right now if five years ago he personally funded the repair of Flint's water crisis and publicly challenged other billionaires to spend their money doing similar things.  That'd be a damn good thing to boast about, and he'd probably be the front runner.  

[Doug C]

I apologize for making you think that. I've had a rushed day and am probably feeling a bit inferior. My fault entirely. I agree re Flint. What a gesture that would have been.

[chisoxjtrain]

If this shit gets pulled, another 4 years of Trump.

 

Headline: Democratic Leaders Willing to Risk Party Damage to Stop Bernie Sanders

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html

[chisoxjtrain]

New numbers from RealClearPolitics

 

[jff]

If this shit gets pulled, another 4 years of Trump.

 

Headline: Democratic Leaders Willing to Risk Party Damage to Stop Bernie Sanders

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/democratic-superdelegates.html

 

Democratic leaders would be better served focusing on the down ticket races and avoiding a brokered convention at all cost.

[TCP]

From an outsider's perspective, it's pretty amazing the resistance Bernie is getting even in the democratic party. None of his ideas are that radical. I can understand assbackwards republicans not liking him but the amount of democrats openly treating him like he's some kind of radical is particularly strange. I hope he's successful for you guys, you definitely need someone like him. 

[ih8music]

What gets me annoyed about the Bernie camp warning about getting "screwed" at the convention is that they knew those were the rules getting into the race.  If he arrives with a majority of delegates, he gets the nomination - period.  Anything less goes to a second (or third, or ...) vote - which he could still win. 

 

None of this was created to prevent Sanders specifically, but it was created to reduce the chance that someone who comes in with, say, only 30% of the party's support gets the nomination.  If enough of the majority agree that they want someone else, that's what the convention is for.

 

These are the same rules that have given Sanders 45% of the available delegates thus far, despite only getting 29% of the popular vote.  (And if they were following GOP primary rules, he'd have 100% of the delegates right now -- i.e. how we got Trump)

[tinnitus photography]

What gets me annoyed about the Bernie camp warning about getting "screwed" at the convention is that they knew those were the rules getting into the race.  If he arrives with a majority of delegates, he gets the nomination - period.  Anything less goes to a second (or third, or ...) vote - which he could still win. 

 

None of this was created to prevent Sanders specifically, but it was created to reduce the chance that someone who comes in with, say, only 30% of the party's support gets the nomination.  If enough of the majority agree that they want someone else, that's what the convention is for.

 

These are the same rules that have given Sanders 45% of the available delegates thus far, despite only getting 29% of the popular vote.  (And if they were following GOP primary rules, he'd have 100% of the delegates right now -- i.e. how we got Trump)

 

super delegates are just another way for the DNC to corral and hold power.... the Repubs don't use this, they use delegates chosen by the popular vote. That's the source of Bernie's frustration and I agree with him.