PigSooie Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 It's that time of year again. The Kentucky Derby runs this Saturday. The race is going to be tough, as usual. I like Curlin. He's never lost a race, and he won the Arkansas Derby by a record 10.5 lengths (previous winners included Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex). Other early favorites include No Biz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, and Scat Daddy. Post positions will be drawn today at 5pm eastern. Here's the projected field: Horse / Trainer / Jockey Any Given Saturday / Todd Pletcher / Garrett Gomez Bwana Bull / Jerry Hollendorfer /Javier Castellano Circular Quay / Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez Cowtown Cat / Todd Pletcher / Fernando Jara Curlin / Steve Asmussen / Robby Albarado Dominican / Darrin Miller / Rafael Bejarano Great Hunter / Doug O'Neill / Corey Nakatani Hard Spun / J. Larry Jones / Mario Pino Liquidity / Doug O'Neill / David Flores Nobiz Like Shobiz / Barclay Tagg / Cornelio Velasquez Sam P. / Todd Pletcher / Ramon Dominguez Scat Daddy / Todd Pletcher / Edgar Prado Sedgefield / Darrin Miller / Julien Leparoux Storm In May / William Kaplan / Juan Leyva Stormello / William Currin / Kent Desormeaux Street Sense/ Carl Nafzger / Calvin Borel Teuflesberg / Jamie Sanders / Stewart Elliott Tiago / John Shirreffs / Mike Smith Zanjero / Steven Asmussen /Shaun Bridgmohan Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 SCAT DADDY ALL THE WAY!!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 2, 2007 Author Share Posted May 2, 2007 He's a good one. It was either him, or No Biz that won at 99/1 back in March. Made a friend of mine $4k. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 I'm betting $40 on Scat Daddy. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 2, 2007 Author Share Posted May 2, 2007 Across the board, or to win? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Across the board, or to win?To win!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 I'll have to choose either Great Hunter or Cowtown Cat. Denver has been referred to as a "cow town" and, well, "cat." HST gets a shout-out for the other name, though (at least that's how I opt to read it). Every year I choose my pony based on the name alone, regardless of the odds. This has resulted in one place and one show, I believe, in the last 20 years. Failure-proof, indeed. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Elixir Sue Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 Looks like Todd Pletcher is the man. I'm going to put some money on Curlin, across the board. I'll probably bet on a couple more to win, just for the hell of it, but I'm not sure which ones yet... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 2, 2007 Author Share Posted May 2, 2007 I'm thinking of putting some money to win on every horse over 15-1 to back my exotic bets. I have never done this before, but I assure you if a do it, a favorite will win. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scalzunfield Posted May 2, 2007 Share Posted May 2, 2007 I was down there last weekend and, if Calvin Borel races Street Sense this weekend the way he ran the horses I saw him run last weekend...look out. He is one amazing jockey. I put down an Across The Board bet on a horse with 20-1 pre-race odds just because Borel was riding. The horse went to post at 9-1 and won... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 3, 2007 Author Share Posted May 3, 2007 The post positions are set, and the morning line is out. Curlin is the favorite, so you can throw him off the ticket. Horse/Trainer/Jockey/Morning Line 1 Sedgefield /Darrin Miller/ Julien Leparoux/ 50-1 2 Curlin/ Steve Asmussen/ Robby Albarado/ 7-2 3 Zanjero /Steven Asmussen /Shaun Bridgmohan/ 30-1 4 Storm In May /William Kaplan/ Juan Leyva /30-1 5 Imawildandcrazyguy/ William Kaplan /Mark Guidry /50-1 6 Cowtown Cat /Todd Pletcher/ Fernando Jara/ 20-1 7 Street Sense /Carl Nafzger /Calvin Borel/ 4-1 8 Hard Spun /J. Larry Jones /Mario Pino /15-1 9 Liquidity/ Doug O'Neill /David Flores/ 30-1 10 Teuflesberg /Jamie Sanders /Stewart Elliott /30-1 11 Bwana Bull/ Jerry Hollendorfer/ Javier Castellano/ 50-1 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz /Barclay Tagg /Cornelio Velasquez /8-1 13 Sam P. /Todd Pletcher/ Ramon Dominguez /20-1 14 Scat Daddy /Todd Pletcher /Edgar Prado/ 10-1 15 Tiago/ John Shirreffs/ Mike Smith/ 15-1 16 Circular Quay/ Todd Pletcher/ John Velazquez /8-1 17 Stormello/ William Currin/ Kent Desormeaux/ 30-1 18 Any Given Saturday/ Todd Pletcher /Garrett Gomez /12-1 19 Dominican /Darrin Miller/ Rafael Bejarano /20-1 20 Great Hunter /Doug O'Neill /Corey Nakatani /15-1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 5, 2007 Author Share Posted May 5, 2007 If this race wasn't already hard enough, it's going to be MUDDY. I'm off to the track. Good luck to everyone. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
theashtraysays Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Dominican to place. Horses don't win from that far out, but Rafael will give somebody a scare. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 I was down there last weekend and, if Calvin Borel races Street Sense this weekend the way he ran the horses I saw him run last weekend...look out. He is one amazing jockey.Listening to a local sports radio show yesterday afternoon on the drive home was a professional and respected horse guy (sorry, don't know the name) who plays the horses for a living and said almost the same thing. He said the smart bettor doesn't simply heed the hype/odds nor the results of the horse's immediately previous race or two, but looks at where the horse is projected to be. He compared it to baseball players being called up to the big leagues and the prediction one can do on how they'll fare once they arrive there. Of course, some will be the next Ted Williams where others will fade into the background, unable to make the jump. But the analysis is usually pretty accurate. I'm taking Street Sense for the win and Great Hunter for place. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
parisisstale Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Listening to a local sports radio show yesterday afternoon on the drive home was a professional and respected horse guy (sorry, don't know the name) who plays the horses for a living and said almost the same thing. He said the smart bettor doesn't simply heed the hype/odds nor the results of the horse's immediately previous race or two, but looks at where the horse is projected to be. He compared it to baseball players being called up to the big leagues and the prediction one can do on how they'll fare once they arrive there. Of course, some will be the next Ted Williams where others will fade into the background, unable to make the jump. But the analysis is usually pretty accurate. I'm taking Street Sense for the win and Great Hunter for place. I went with you (and Kenny Mayne, who loved Great Hunter). At least we got the winner!!! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted May 5, 2007 Share Posted May 5, 2007 Street Sense ran a masterful race. I really had a tough time watching though -- shades of Barbaro Quote Link to post Share on other sites
j4lackey Posted May 6, 2007 Share Posted May 6, 2007 That was the best Derby I ever seed. Calvin Borel was a hoot, and made it exciting to watch. This is not just the wine, beer and whiskey and whatnot talking. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted May 7, 2007 Share Posted May 7, 2007 Watching the replay isolation where you see him bounding past about 8 horses in 3-4 strides while making his "move" on the rail -- it's really amazing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 9, 2007 Author Share Posted May 9, 2007 I still think Curlin is the best horse. He had a dreadful trip, and managed a show ticket. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 17, 2007 Author Share Posted May 17, 2007 Here is the draw, and morning line for The Preakness. 3yo - 1 3/16 miles - Dirt - Grade I - $1 million PP Horse Jockey Trainer ML-- ----- ------ ------- -- 1 Mint Slewlep Alan Garcia Larry Jones 30-1 2 Xchanger Ramon Dominguez Mark Shuman 15-1 3 Circular Quay John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 8-1 4 Curlin Robby Albarado Steve Asmussen 7-2 5 King of the Roxy Garrett Gomez Todd Pletcher 12-1 6 Flying First Class Mark Guidry D. Wayne Lukas 20-1 7 Hard Spun Mario Pino Larry Jones 5-2 8 Street Sense Calvin Borel Carl Nafzger 7-5 9 C P West Edgar Prado Nick Zito 20-1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jonbama Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 So anyone have any insight for this year? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 2, 2008 Author Share Posted May 2, 2008 This is one of the toughest derbies to handicap (not that any of them are easy) in years. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Colonel John is my boy this year. Big Brown is favored but has a loser pole position. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PigSooie Posted May 2, 2008 Author Share Posted May 2, 2008 Gayego is my sleeper. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Jules Posted May 2, 2008 Share Posted May 2, 2008 Gayego is my sleeper.I was thinking the same thing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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