Jon Papelbon is the best baseball thread ever

[MrRain422]

Well, I think looking at numbers means more than traditional scouting, but both are really necessary to really know how good a player may turn out to be.

 

The prime example is when it comes to pitching. The numbers are more indicative than traditional scouting when determing just how well hitters will be able to hit a guy. But at the same time, traditional scouting is still necessary. If you have two pitchers with similar minor league stats, you have to look at who has the better mechanics. And then once you do that, you have to decide whether the guy with the worse mechanics will become even better by correcting his mechanics, or if he'll lose his dominance if they're corrected (some guys are dominant, but have mechanics that will destroy them in just a few years).

 

The best teams will be built on both. They'll have to look at statistics, but also look into why certain players put up certain stats, and determine if those numbers can hold up in the long term in the major leagues, and determine if the adjustments made to prolong a career might also put that career in jeopardy.

 

I think in general, the sabermatricians have it right, but there are still too many things they're missing to write off traditionalists as a whole.

[bjorn_skurj]

Orlando Hern

[bobbob1313]

Well, I think looking at numbers means more than traditional scouting, but both are really necessary to really know how good a player may turn out to be.

 

The prime example is when it comes to pitching. The numbers are more indicative than traditional scouting when determing just how well hitters will be able to hit a guy. But at the same time, traditional scouting is still necessary. If you have two pitchers with similar minor league stats, you have to look at who has the better mechanics. And then once you do that, you have to decide whether the guy with the worse mechanics will become even better by correcting his mechanics, or if he'll lose his dominance if they're corrected (some guys are dominant, but have mechanics that will destroy them in just a few years).

 

The best teams will be built on both. They'll have to look at statistics, but also look into why certain players put up certain stats, and determine if those numbers can hold up in the long term in the major leagues, and determine if the adjustments made to prolong a career might also put that career in jeopardy.

 

I think in general, the sabermatricians have it right, but there are still too many things they're missing to write off traditionalists as a whole.

 

The best example I can think of is Yusmeiro Petit, a minor league pitcher for the Marlins. He's been untouchable in the minors, even though most scouts say he's not a dominant pitcher. So it's a battle of brain vs. gut. And so far, the gut guys look to be right, as he's look terrible in his few appearances in the Show. But who knows, he could become a stud.

 

I mean, nobody would say Maddux has better stuff than Randy Johnson, but he's arguably the better pitcher.

[MrRain422]

Verlander was bad in his 3-4 starts last year, but obviously excellent this year. I dont' put a lot of stock in a few appearances that a player makes before he is ready. If that guy has dominated in the minors, though, it is a good indication that he should dominate in the majors. Only rarely does a guy get lit up in AA and be great in the majors. But to make a good prediction, you have to have both. Stats tell you how good a guy has been, and are a good indicator of how good he will be, but good scouting can give you a good idea for why he's been that way. Bad scouting can you a worse idea of how good a guy is than anything else, but scouting in general is still necessary to understand how good a player is and how close he is to peaking.

Edited September 2, 2006 by MrRain422

[bobbob1313]

Verlander was bad in his 3-4 starts last year, but obviously excellent this year. I dont' put a lot of stock in a few appearances that a player makes before he is ready. If that guy has dominated in the minors, though, it is a good indication that he should dominate in the majors. Only rarely does a guy get lit up in AA and be great in the majors. But to make a good prediction, you have to have both. Stats tell you how good a guy has been, and are a good indicator of how good he will be, but good scouting can give you a good idea for why he's been that way. Bad scouting can you a worse idea of how good a guy is than anything lese, but scouting in general is still necessary to understand how good a player is and how close he is to peaking.

 

And Hanley Ramirez is a good example of a guy that the scouters got right, even if the stats didn't show it. He did crap in the minors. Hit for no power, and got on base at a crap clip, but in the Majors, he's been better than his minor numbers, and he's just a rookie. He's doing a great Jose Reyes impersonation.

[MrRain422]

I'm pretty sure everyone had high expectations for Hanley Ramirez.

[Nobody Girl]

His swing never really looked pretty. It changed when he stopped getting the calls on inside pitches and eventually he became a dead-pull hitter.

 

I think one could make a case for him as the MVP. Simply because I think he's more important to the A's success than any other player on any other AL team in contention. How many of his homers have given the A's the lead or tied a game?

I know 14 (of 29) have given them the lead.

[cryptique]

Christ, don't you people ever sleep?

 

How's A2 right about now, Cryptique? It's move-in week at the dorms, eh? I so completely miss that place and don't miss it all at the same time...

A2 is lovely right about now. But that's the weather. Yes, the morons are back, and they've infested the area as they do each fall. Those glorious summer days of minimal student population have elapsed for the year.

 

...and today's the first U-M home game. I live a mile west of the stadium and was awakened half an hour ago by slamming car doors as some friends of my neighbors showed up for tailgating. The banner-trailing planes are already circling overhead.

[Reni]

Orlando Hern

[MrRain422]

Christ, don't you people ever sleep?

A2 is lovely right about now. But that's the weather. Yes, the morons are back, and they've infested the area as they do each fall. Those glorious summer days of minimal student population have elapsed for the year.

 

...and today's the first U-M home game. I live a mile west of the stadium and was awakened half an hour ago by slamming car doors as some friends of my neighbors showed up for tailgating. The banner-trailing planes are already circling overhead.

 

heh, i sort of wish i was there for the football game. oh well.

[Sir Stewart]

Jon Lester has lymphoma.

"So it's the good cancer."

[bjorn_skurj]

LoDuca runs good for a catcher.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5915284

[Edie]

My brother thinks the White Sox will lose this year because of letting Thomas go and trading Rowand for Thome. He says "how can you NOT have room on your club for a hall-of-famer" and the loss of speed up the middle (Rowand) will eventually kill their chances.

[Reni]

well, I don't think the White Sox are going all the way - I even have doubts about making it to the playoffs. I think they can do it, though I am not banking on it.

[bjorn_skurj]

It's hard to repeat.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

Loss of speed up the middle? Only with Mackowiak. Honestly, Rowand, hard as he plays, is a bit of a spazz (kamikazing into Chase Utley? Wtf) and isn't Anderson's equal defensively. They replaced a HOFer with another HOFer who is at a more productive part of his career.

 

Their offseason boner seems to have been trading Chris Young, Vizcaino, and El Duque for Vazquez. It seems like Viz could've shored up a spotty bullpen and Young could've competed with Pods or Anderson for a spot in the outfield. It seems he would've been a huge defensive upgrade over Pods and likely an offensive upgrade, not to mention being a player for the future. Hindsight being 20/20, they should've trade El Duque to sure up another position or the bullpen. Then they should've started McCarthy, who seemed ready during the stretch run last year.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

I've seen the Questec report' date=' the average umpire can judge the oustide corner within an inch and a half. Frank Thomas within an inch. The average batter is more like two inches.[/quote']

Pretty cool if true.

[caliber66]

It really only matters how closely he can judge the umpire's perception of the outside corner.

[Beltmann]

As of right now, the Marlins are 2 games behind for the NL wild card. If they manage to scrape to the top, they should send flowers to the Brewers: Over the last two weeks, the Marlins are 6-0 against the Brewers (who have now lost 9 straight).

[bobbob1313]

As of right now, the Marlins are 2 games behind for the NL wild card. If they manage to scrape to the top, they should send flowers to the Brewers: Over the last two weeks, the Marlins are 6-0 against the Brewers (who have now lost 9 straight).

 

I know. Tell them we appreciate it.

[bjorn_skurj]

Good pitcher's duel in Houston.

[rwrkb]

My brother thinks the White Sox will lose this year because of letting Thomas go and trading Rowand for Thome. He says "how can you NOT have room on your club for a hall-of-famer" and the loss of speed up the middle (Rowand) will eventually kill their chances.

 

 

if all goes well Thomas can wave to the folks back in chicago from the world series.

 

 

GO A's!

[MrRain422]

Went to the Cubs/Giants game. Bought this ticket pretty much just to boo Barry Bonds. That was fun. Bonds also hit a homerun. So I got to experience booing him, and seeing him hit a tater. That's about all I could ask for in a game between two teams I don't care about.

 

I love baseball.

[bobbob1313]

After starting the season 11-31, the Marlins are back at .500 for the first time since the 2nd game of the season.

 

yeah! We've officially reached "Mediocre".