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You know, this has the potential to be a very bad thing. Putin will not let go of the Ukraine willingly.

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My hopes are rapidly fading that this can be peacefully resolved.  The Ukranian people are dvided it seems, but leaning towrds Maidan.  Putin may be an asshole, but he has balls, and like you say won't let go easily.  US and Europe, who have no balls, aren't willing stand up for the ideals they claim to hold dear.  Sad.

 

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/mar/20/fascism-russia-and-ukraine/

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  • 2 weeks later...

This may stop at the Crimea...it is not a historically natural part of the Ukraine. Kruschev ceded it to the Ukraine in the 1950's,

I hope Putin is simply concerned with the security of the Black Sea Fleet's base. If not, then he is simply insane. I don't think that Germany, Poland, France and Britain will stand for anything further.

We are a weak cypher now. I don't think Mr. Obama's threats about a 'red lines' and 'paying a price' have much import after the lines drawn in Libya and Syria were pissed on. Unless we can fight a war with hellfire armed drones, we ain't going in.

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US and Europe, who have no balls, aren't willing stand up for the ideals they claim to hold dear.  Sad.

 

My heart goes out to the Ukranian people who seem to be stuck choosing between their own ousted leader and foreign invasion.

 

That said, the western powers' military engagement may have factors beyond "balls".  A general assurance of benefit is subverted in complexities beyond our wildest imagination.  The thought that an outsider presence would stabilize things domestically for the Ukraine is assuming an awful lot before you even consider a stand-off with Russia.

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The U.S. has pledged support for Ukraine and has demanded that Russia not interfere. With Russian boots on the ground and little likelihood that we will actually do anything about it, Putin scores a post-Syria victory -- again making the United States (and NATO) look like nothing but a lot of hot air and causing our allies to question our resolve and commitment. 

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They should be kicked out of the G8 immediately. Also, other non-military punishments (sanctions, embargoes, etc.). We cannot afford (financially to otherwise) any sort of military response. The danger is Putin keeps grabbing until we can't afford not to respond militarily.

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I was listening to a story about how from a banking confidence perspective Russia is still considered a "failed state".  Their politicians and tycoons do most of their banking through the U.S.  So, yeah, a lot of assets could be frozen.  Money talks.  Maybe that's the best step.

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Freezing the assets of the Russian oligarchy is also a likely response, and probably the best thing to put real pressure on Putin.

Please write your Congressmen and Congresswomen, Senators, and President Obama urging them to do freeze Russian assets. 

 

http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/

 

http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm

 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/submit-questions-and-comments

 

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Republicans love anything that they think makes President Obama look bad. FoxNews is actually PRO FUKKING PUTIN and that is not a joke.
I bet they meet this upcoming week on how they can try and work against President Obama on this one.
The funny thing is that they aren't anti anything but President Obama. Disgraceful really. I marched a ton in the early 00s but never once did I want the US to lose an inch of ground in Iraq or anywhere else.

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I think its hard to argue against ethnic demographics - we've seen the result of arbitrary borders in the Balkans, the Middle East, and Africa before. Ukraine should be split in half and the eastern part given back to Russia. The maps here show it starkly.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/

 

Not what anyone really wants to hear, but its what the local majorities on the ground actually want.

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Well, that was largely the result of another border-defining mess after WWI.

 

BTW, I am equally supportive of the aspirations of the western Ukrainians. They have expressed their own need for self determination very bravely. Don't confuse an assessment of a situation with personal preferences for an ideal world.

 

What I am saying is that there are so many examples from history that it is just not worth forcing an unnatural single state to exist. It only leads to tension for extremists to exploit e.g. your example with Hitler and now this with Putin (or if not the cunning but sane Putin, then someone like Zhirinovsky, not that he's got any hope of power and thankfully most Russians regard him as a joke/nut). The vast majority of ordinary Russians value stability of some kind for their ordinary lives and Putin has brought that compared to the economic chaos of the Yeltsin years and in many ways a strong-ish Russia actually makes the world safer.

There are no nice guys in all this of course and it is not like I am filled with admiration for any of the figures involved (Vaclav Havel is the only person I can think of from the upheavals in Eastern Europe whose morality I admired). I do not look forward to any kind of rehabilitation of Yulia Tymoshenko either.

 

Best way for the West to fight is through economics and hurting Putin by hurting his olygarch supporters wallets. That may already be happening with the devaluation of the rouble, though most of them already have their money abroad of course. Plus he's got all the gas so it cuts both ways ...

 

 

The German deputies of Bohemia, Moravia, and Silesia in the Imperial Council (Reichsrat) referred to the Fourteen Points of U.S. President Woodrow Wilson and the right proposed therein to self-determination, and attempted to negotiate the union of the German-speaking territories with the new Republic of German Austria, which itself aimed at joining Weimar Germany.

However, the German-speaking parts of the former Lands of the Bohemian Crown remained in a newly created Czechoslovakia, a multiethnic state of several nations: Czechs, Germans, Slovaks, Hungarians, Poles and Ruthenians. On 20 September 1918, the Prague government asked the United States's opinion for the Sudetenland. President Woodrow Wilson sent Ambassador Archibald Coolidge into Czechoslovakia. After Coolidge became witness of German Bohemian demonstrations, Coolidge suggested the possibility of ceding certain German-speaking parts of Bohemia to Germany (Cheb) and Austria (South Moravia and South Bohemia).He also insisted that the German-inhabited regions of West and North Bohemia remain within Czechoslovakia. However, the American delegation at the Paris talks, with Allen Dulles as the American's chief diplomat who emphasized preserving the unity of the Czech lands, decided not to follow Coolidge's proposal.

...

The Czechs thus rejected the aspirations of the German Bohemians and demanded the inclusion of the lands inhabited by ethnic Germans in their state, despite the presence of more than 90% (as of 1921) ethnic Germans

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