Electoral Vote Predictions

[solace]

[JUDE]

I voted, and not for myself.

[cryptique]

In what is hopefully not an omen for the actual election, my vote seems to have been discarded or recorded incorrectly.

[solace]

In what is hopefully not an omen for the actual election, my vote seems to have been discarded or recorded incorrectly.

 

this is one poll that i CAN rig... which one did you vote for?

[ction]

LouieB is going to have an aneurysm.

[mfwahl]

Does this mean I can stay home tomorrow?

[myboyblue]

"mandate"

[LouieB]

"mandate"

Big time....I am predicting the biggest total on the board....over 375, although actually I think it may be closer to 350.

 

No need to go postal because I really really believe a huge number of young people, newly registered, minority, and progressive voters are going to turn out. I am totally optimistic.....totally.

 

LouieB

[chanman1128]

273 - 265 OBAMA

 

This is going to be a very close race, much closer than people think

 

Obama will lose Florida and Ohio because of all those "undecideds" that can't vote for a black guy

 

Virginia will surprise everyone and vote McCain

 

Colorado and New Mexico will be blue.

 

Pennsylvania is really the key state, after being much closer than expected....scaring everyone until the last vote...Obama takes it.

 

Edit to say: Obama will be way ahead in the popular vote.

[Edie]

Thanks Kyle -- I was going to do this but got busy

 

My vote: Obama wins with 300-338 EV

 

I predict he will win the following swing-er states:

 

PA, VA, FL, NM, CO, NV, IA, NH

 

I think he will lose OH, IN, MO and NC. Three of these four are in the eastern time zone so we should know pretty early whether it is a landslide or just a sweet victory.

[LouieB]

Ohio is going Obama, so is North Carolina....(wishful fucking thinking...)

 

heck I think he even has a pretty good chance in Indiana.

 

LouieB

[chanman1128]

I predict he will win the following swing-er states:

IA, NH

 

 

he has NH and IA in the bag.

[Edie]

Trust me, I want him to win them all

[viatroy]

I'm going even more cautious than RealClearPolitics predictions .... 278 for Obama, handing ALL the tossups to McCain for a total of 260.

 

If Obama gets any one of the tossups (and that's highly probable), it'll be a bonus for me:

 

VA, NC, GA, FL, OH, IN, MO, ND, MT, AZ.

[chanman1128]

I have said, and heard from various people from the beginning, that Obama will need to be ahead by at LEAST 5-7 percent in the polls to pull out a win...based on many things....and one can not count out the Bradley Effect....too many scary things....I am nervous.

[solace]

My full prediction:

 

Obama 311

McCain 227

 

Obama takes NV, CO, NM, OH, VA, loses FL, IN, MO (although i could see one of MO or IN flipping)

 

I have said, and heard from various people from the beginning, that Obama will need to be ahead by at LEAST 5-7 percent in the polls to pull out a win...based on many things....and one can not count out the Bradley Effect....too many scary things....I am nervous.

 

well his national poll average at this moment stands at 7.5%, so that's good

[LouieB]

I think there is going to be a reverse Bradley effect; far more minority voters in all parts of the country voting Obama and more whites voting who aren't saying now. (Pollyanna deluxe over here...)

 

LouieB

[chanman1128]

I think there is going to be a reverse Bradley effect; far more minority voters in all parts of the country voting Obama and more whites voting who aren't saying now. (Pollyanna deluxe over here...)

 

LouieB

 

 

Word, I really hope you are right...I am just a little skeptical of polls, and I tend to be pessimistic when I care a lot about something, that said, I still think he is going to pull out the win.

 

Can't wait for tomorrow.

[viatroy]

I agree -- the Bradley effect is bogus, but it helps the Republicans play CYA with suppression efforts.

 

The other issue that only figures in a couple polls is the cell phone voters polled.

[solace]

I think there is going to be a reverse Bradley effect; far more minority voters in all parts of the country voting Obama and more whites voting who aren't saying now. (Pollyanna deluxe over here...)

 

LouieB

 

agreed... for every 1 person who won't vote for Obama cuz of his race, there will be 3+ who will (not going to debate the merits of that, but still)

 

I agree -- the Bradley effect is bogus, but it helps the Republicans play CYA with suppression efforts.

 

The other issue that only figures in a couple polls is the cell phone voters polled.

 

and the ones that do poll cell phones have mostly higher margins for Obama

[chanman1128]

well his national poll average at this moment stands at 7.5%, so that's good

 

 

Margin of Error is always 3-4 percent, and all those undecideds are voting McCain.

 

 

I agree -- the Bradley effect is bogus, but it helps the Republicans play CYA with suppression efforts.

 

Bradley effect most likely is bullshit, but it could have been the answer to NH not voting for him (in the primaries) after the polls gave him a clear advantage.

[mountain bed]

You are all dead wrong. It's gonna come down to Lake County, IN - AND we won't know the decision until my birthday (Dec. 8)

 

 

 

I keed, kids. I have Barack 318-220. With an upset for Obama in IN.

[viatroy]

Hoosier Daddy!

[solace]

Margin of Error is always 3-4 percent, and all those undecideds are voting McCain.

 

 

 

 

Bradley effect most likely is bullshit, but it could have been the answer to NH not voting for him (in the primaries) after the polls gave him a clear advantage.

 

history dictates most undecideds at this late in the game don't vote...

[chanman1128]

history dictates most undecideds at this late in the game don't vote...

 

 

I know, but I am saying they are not really undecideds, they just don't want to admit that they can't vote for an African American.