dire economic prophecies came true

[cryptique]

This guy was so completely, dead-on correct about what was going to happen, but the goons at Fox News laughed at him and treated him like he was some kind of lunatic. Fair and balanced!

 

 

Andrew Leonard at Salon.com posted this today (he thanks Andrew Sullivan for the tip).

[ZenLunatic]

Peter Schiff, economic advisier for Ron Paul. Why dont we listen to the people who predicted this whole thing instead of relying on the people who got us here.

[stickman]

He should have taken that bet.

[bjorn_skurj]

I guess that dude owes that other dude a penny.

[M. (hristine]

Bin Laden predicted it in 2004 when he promised to raise the Al Qaeda flag in the furthest corner of the world and bleed our economy dry like he did for 10 years in the Soviet Union.

 

We consume rather than manufacture, spend rather than save. We are ripe for it.

[explodo]

That was gold. Ben Stein telling people to buy Merrill Lynch = phenomenal. Actually, that whole section somewhere around the six minute mark.....great.

[mountain bed]

Bin Laden predicted it in 2004 when he promised to raise the Al Qaeda flag in the furthest corner of the world and bleed our economy dry like he did for 10 years in the Soviet Union.

I wonder how much of the collapse of the USSR was due to us outspending them militarily, and how much of it had to do with them spending all that $$$ in what might be the most God-forsaken place on Earth.

 

I know we need to try to clean that place up but it might be an impossible task.

[tugmoose]

Great. Where do I go to slit my throat?

[ih8music]

To be fair - he's not a fan of Obama's economic plans, and thinks they'll make the current problems much worse.

 

 

Let's hope he's wrong this time.

[M. (hristine]

I wonder how much of the collapse of the USSR was due to us outspending them militarily, and how much of it had to do with them spending all that $$$ in what might be the most God-forsaken place on Earth.

 

I know we need to try to clean that place up but it might be an impossible task.

Clearly the economic collapse of the Soviet Union was complex, but the 10 year war in Afghanistan was a contributing factor. That's how little quick guys beat big lumbering guys. Guerilla tactics.

 

And there is a financial guerilla war still waging.

 

These words burned in my memory 4 years ago:

 

In November 2004, CNN reported that Bin Laden released a video monologue to Al-Jazeera where the terror-savvy, extreme fundamentalist announced plans to continue a

[Good Old Neon]

Clearly the economic collapse of the Soviet Union was complex, but the 10 year war in Afghanistan was a contributing factor. That's how little quick guys beat big lumbering guys. Guerilla tactics.

 

And there is a financial guerilla war still waging.

 

These words burned in my memory 4 years ago:

 

In November 2004, CNN reported that Bin Laden released a video monologue to Al-Jazeera where the terror-savvy, extreme fundamentalist announced plans to continue a

[MattZ]

I'd like to suggest that in any scenario there will always be people who, looking back, were "right." There are bulls right now who will be proven right, eventually. They may be wrong for 1 year, or 5 years, or 10 years, but eventually, someone will be right. That could be because they truly know more than everyone or because they are in the right place at the right time.

 

And either way, even if Schiff saw this coming a mile away, it doesn't mean that he is qualified to suggest our way out of it. Two entirely different skillsets and scenarios.

[cryptique]

I'd like to suggest that in any scenario there will always be people who, looking back, were "right." There are bulls right now who will be proven right, eventually. They may be wrong for 1 year, or 5 years, or 10 years, but eventually, someone will be right. That could be because they truly know more than everyone or because they are in the right place at the right time.

 

And either way, even if Schiff saw this coming a mile away, it doesn't mean that he is qualified to suggest our way out of it. Two entirely different skillsets and scenarios.

Schiff wasn't "right" by accident -- it's pretty clear that he understood the underlying mechanisms that were driving the economy off the cliff in ways that others (at least at Fox) didn't.

 

That said, I definitely agree that understanding that the meltdown was imminent is not the same thing as knowing how to fix things after it happens.

[miss jayne]

Some of the wealthiest people I know took their money out of the market at the top. Told to by economic advisers to do so others ignored that advice and are having to "sell the Porsche".

 

Art Lauffer trickle down economics....just like PNAC another fabulous neocon idea that has lead to despair on so many levels.

 

Over leveraged, no one paying much attention, no fundamentals in place "merrill lynch an astonishingly well run company", and two wars that put all of us in the poor house. Good God these guys piss me off.

I think that when everyone figures out how phony all this has been we will all be astounded. However, I don't know how to even wrap my mind around how to fix it so just for today I will go sell a few flowers. When in doubt spend money on beauty...

[MattZ]

Schiff wasn't "right" by accident -- it's pretty clear that he understood the underlying mechanisms that were driving the economy off the cliff in ways that others (at least at Fox) didn't.

 

Yes, but in the market, the only thing worse than being wrong, is being right too early. So part of what I am saying is that being "right" involves a timing element too. And that this can certainly occur by "accident." Schiff was certainly right on the money in his analysis, but he wasn't the only one who saw this coming, and he was one of the few that timed it right.

 

Lots of people knew the dotcom craze was a bubble. But they thought they were smart enough to get out before the bubble burst. If dotcoms are flying high, even if you know it's ridiculous, you can stand on the sidelines and say it, or you can continue buying and selling and making money. While you stand on the sidelines, lots of people are making money. Lots of people "knew" that we were overleveraged and that the housing market wasn't sustainable, but people were flipping homes and making lots of cash. Schiff put his stake in the ground, but if the market had kept chugging along for 3 years, he would have been forgotten about, and lots of people would have gotten rich in the meantime. In other words: there were people saying exactly what Schiff was saying 4 years ago, 2 years ago, etc. They were right too, but they were too early.

[ZenLunatic]

Yes, but in the market, the only thing worse than being wrong, is being right too early. So part of what I am saying is that being "right" involves a timing element too. And that this can certainly occur by "accident." Schiff was certainly right on the money in his analysis, but he wasn't the only one who saw this coming, and he was one of the few that timed it right.

 

Lots of people knew the dotcom craze was a bubble. But they thought they were smart enough to get out before the bubble burst. If dotcoms are flying high, even if you know it's ridiculous, you can stand on the sidelines and say it, or you can continue buying and selling and making money. While you stand on the sidelines, lots of people are making money. Lots of people "knew" that we were overleveraged and that the housing market wasn't sustainable, but people were flipping homes and making lots of cash. Schiff put his stake in the ground, but if the market had kept chugging along for 3 years, he would have been forgotten about, and lots of people would have gotten rich in the meantime. In other words: there were people saying exactly what Schiff was saying 4 years ago, 2 years ago, etc. They were right too, but they were too early.

 

Schiff's ideas are not about timing the market. Its about the fundalmentals based on Austrian Economics. He's not out there giving short term advice or calling timed deals. If you know there is a bubble about to burst and you play, you are really gambling big time cause no one can predict the burst. If you are wrong, you lose tons of money, if you are late, you make your money later. How can being late be worse?

 

Schiff is probably early on his current predictions, just like his other ones, but he's always been right. His track record speaks for itself. Timing isnt that important when playing long.

[MattZ]

Timing isnt that important when playing long.

 

Haha, ZenL, it's like we exist in alternate universes. I think that, without fail, I respectfully disagree with everything you say on here.

 

First of all, timing is everything when investing. Literally, everything. How can you say it's not that important? If, 4 years ago, you foresaw this bubble, and you shorted the real estate market, you would have gone bankrupt as the market continued to rip while you were a bear. Ok, you would have been proven right in the long run, but "right" in the market means you made money. There's no moral victories.

 

Now, if you want to tell me that timing isn't everything in academia or idiotic Fox News interviews, sure I can agree with you. But only because the proof isn't in the proverbial pudding. Those who can, do. Those who can't, go teach economics at business school or give interviews on Fox News. And if they are right, we hold them up after the fact. If they are wrong, we forget about them.

 

I am not trying to rain on Mr. Schiff's parade -- the guy flat out nailed it, and with a degree of specificity that should be applauded. But he is not the only guy that saw this coming. Did you see how much money guys like John Paulson and Phil Falcone made last year betting against the subprime market? So much that they were brought before Congress last week to testify. And so much so that the House Committee asked them what they think about TARP and how it's going.

[MattZ]

Also, ZenL, I don't want you to tell that "markets go up over time" -- this isn't econ class. This is the real world. Where "over time" means that when people retire they need to draw on their 401k. People don't have "over time." They have their lifetime. And if we head for the implosion that you seem to want (by ignoring bailouts), there's going to be a lot of baby boomers with 401ks that are a mere fraction of what they were once worth. And they will have to live, and die, on that amount. Telling them to wait another 30 years because "markets go up over time" ain't gonna cut it.

[ZenLunatic]

Haha, ZenL, it's like we exist in alternate universes. I think that, without fail, I respectfully disagree with everything you say on here.

 

First of all, timing is everything when investing. Literally, everything. How can you say it's not that important? If, 4 years ago, you foresaw this bubble, and you shorted the real estate market, you would have gone bankrupt as the market continued to rip while you were a bear. Ok, you would have been proven right in the long run, but "right" in the market means you made money. There's no moral victories.

 

Now, if you want to tell me that timing isn't everything in academia or idiotic Fox News interviews, sure I can agree with you. But only because the proof isn't in the proverbial pudding. Those who can, do. Those who can't, go teach economics at business school or give interviews on Fox News. And if they are right, we hold them up after the fact. If they are wrong, we forget about them.

 

I am not trying to rain on Mr. Schiff's parade -- the guy flat out nailed it, and with a degree of specificity that should be applauded. But he is not the only guy that saw this coming. Did you see how much money guys like John Paulson and Phil Falcone made last year betting against the subprime market? So much that they were brought before Congress last week to testify. And so much so that the House Committee asked them what they think about TARP and how it's going.

 

 

Yeah, I think we are the two opposing sides.

 

Of course you have to have timing to play the markets. Just saying timing on calling big trends is not important, because those trends will eventually happen. If you have to wait years or a few months, it will happen. No one can predict when bubbles will pop close enough to make sound investments. His plays are long terms on sound investments not trying to catch the right side of a certain bubble. There's always high risk factor, when trying playing this way. You could argue that you want to play short term markets and in that timing is crucial, I agree. I know alot of people made money in the tech and housing bubble, but more people lost money in it.

 

I know there are others that think like Schiff, but he is just the one with a more public profile so we talk about him.

[ZenLunatic]

Also, ZenL, I don't want you to tell that "markets go up over time" -- this isn't econ class. This is the real world. Where "over time" means that when people retire they need to draw on their 401k. People don't have "over time." They have their lifetime. And if we head for the implosion that you seem to want (by ignoring bailouts), there's going to be a lot of baby boomers with 401ks that are a mere fraction of what they were once worth. And they will have to live, and die, on that amount. Telling them to wait another 30 years because "markets go up over time" ain't gonna cut it.

 

Ok back to my point, I dont want implosion, who does?? -- its just are fate. I just want to cut off creating more damage and start the healing.

 

The closer you are to retirement, the more you should in cash and bonds types than in equities. You cant afford to be at risk so close, and if you were, you were playing and you lost. To the people that did lose, it is horrible and you can blame the FED for this mess. Blame Alan Greenspan and Bernake who's job was to look over things like this. What the result of our situation can lead to is that there is no retirement anymore except for the super wealthy. That is the reality. What we cant do is try to take care of everyone who's hurting because we dont have the resources anymore. We are all suffering and will suffer more and thats the reality. We just have to make do with what we have.

[Spawn's dad]

yeah

 

its just are fate