remphish1 Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Things are bad here but they are worst in Zimbabwe! Look at this picture from flickr of a man trying to buy groceries in Zimbabwe! http://www.flickr.com/photos/29002218@N08/2700717386/ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Except that at some point the indicators will say buy, and we will -- for far less than what we sold at, and we will make more money than the tiny short term loss we took. The idea is to always minimize losses -- and you will always make more than you would if you stayed in for each full loss. And I am talking long term investments. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Except that at some point the indicators will say buy, and we will -- for far less than what we sold at, and we will make more money than the tiny short term loss we took. The idea is to always minimize losses -- and you will always make more than you would if you stayed in for each full loss. And I am talking long term investments. Your actions aren't of a long term investor. You are playing short term if you wanna find the top and bottom and of peaks. The idea is to minimize loss is a short term investor mentality. A long term investor stays the course of the original plan and ignores temporary fluctuations. Things are bad here but they are worst in Zimbabwe! Look at this picture from flickr of a man trying to buy groceries in Zimbabwe! http://www.flickr.com/photos/29002218@N08/2700717386/ This is USA in 5 to 7 years. Dont say you weren't warned. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett Warren Buffett is buying right now, I think thats a sign to buy, not sell. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Spawn's dad Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 bounce Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MattZ Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 thanks for the update. my internet wasn't working. bounce ? "Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett Warren Buffett is buying right now, I think thats a sign to buy, not sell. Buffett got a 10% kicker on his investment (in Goldman and GE). I agree with you that he is not sounding the panic button like others, but an investment like that isn't exactly a sign that folks like us should start buying. We ain't getting a sweetheart deal like that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Spawn's dad Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I'd say posting the dow average at 20 min intervals is a bit different. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Moe_Syzlak Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 ? Buffett got a 10% kicker on his investment (in Goldman and GE). I agree with you that he is not sounding the panic button like others, but an investment like that isn't exactly a sign that folks like us should start buying. We ain't getting a sweetheart deal like that.Well I think his point is still sound. Time to look for bargains. For eg, if you had bought AAPL before the bell today, you'd be a happy camper. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MattZ Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I'd say posting the dow average at 20 min intervals is a bit different. Just giving you a hard time. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Spawn's dad Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I know. Just getting my post count up. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MattZ Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Well I think his point is still sound. Time to look for bargains. For eg, if you had bought AAPL before the bell today, you'd be a happy camper. Yes, you are right. It's not apples and oranges. But it's not apples to apples, either. No one is calling the bottom. It's entirely possible that this bounce signifies the end of the madness. But that could all evaporate on Monday, and it'd be foolish to look at the Buffett investments in a vacuum. The guy did not invest in the common stock of those companies. He got a very nice cherry on top of his sundae that virtually guarantees the type of return that no one else could get. Goldman and GE did those deals because they needed to from a PR perspective. EDIT: no pun intended on the apples to apples comment. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Moe_Syzlak Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Right. Who was it that said (may be paraphrasing), "only a fool thinks he can buy at the low and sell at the high." To continue using AAPL, it could lose all today's gains on Monday, but chances are, in the long-term, quality stocks are being sold in a panic and are currently a bargain -- even if you lose a bit in the short-term. ETA: there was high volume today ... could be an indicator we are near the bottom. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Your actions aren't of a long term investor. You are playing short term if you wanna find the top and bottom and of peaks. The idea is to minimize loss is a short term investor mentality. A long term investor stays the course of the original plan and ignores temporary fluctuations. Tell that to my brother. He's a professional and has his own investment firm with happy investors. I am just one of them. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 We saw some green today. Could we have hit bottom? The fact that people taking a loss is reason not to sell. The main point is that there are deals out there. Good companies with real value that have suffered a panic sell-off. Searching for a bottom is a big risk. You buy at low prices and expect it will not be the best bargain but that it is a good bargain. You will never see a sale this big again. The panic going on now will be unmatched. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MattZ Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 chances are, in the long-term, quality stocks ... are currently a bargain -- even if you lose a bit in the short-term. Yes, but I think part of the panic now is centered on whether that assumption is a safe one anymore. What's the definition of bargain? Even at the "bargain" rates of today, these stocks are trading at 12-15x earnings. If we enter a global recession, or depression, who knows where earnings go. And who knows what a bargain is anymore. Everything is being turned upside down in this market. Black is white. Up is down. Maybe in a global market where everything is funded with credit, this credit freeze impacts the earnings potential of these companies in ways we just don't know. And then, 12-15x is not a bargain. Maybe 6-7x is. Shame on those who bought at 12-15x. That is what is happening right now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Tell that to my brother. He's a professional and has his own investment firm with happy investors. I am just one of them. A professional investor plays both sides, selling and shorting and also long and short term. If he is making money then he's know what he's doing. I am just saying for a non-professional, its better to sit on your long term goals and ride this downturn out. If you have more to put in, this is the time. Dont sell, but buy more. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 We saw some green today. Could we have hit bottom? The fact that people taking a loss is reason not to sell. The main point is that there are deals out there. Good companies with real value that have suffered a panic sell-off. Searching for a bottom is a big risk. You buy at low prices and expect it will not be the best bargain but that it is a good bargain. You will never see a sale this big again. The panic going on now will be unmatched. My brother's strategy is not to look for the bottom, rather buy into the market when it is moving up after being down. Buying is done after selling when the market indicates a broad move down (which is what we just did). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Moe_Syzlak Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Yes, but I think part of the panic now is centered on whether that assumption is a safe one anymore. What's the definition of bargain? Even at the "bargain" rates of today, these stocks are trading at 12-15x earnings. If we enter a global recession, or depression, who knows where earnings go. And who knows what a bargain is anymore. Everything is being turned upside down in this market. Black is white. Up is down. Maybe in a global market where everything is funded with credit, this credit freeze impacts the earnings potential of these companies in ways we just don't know. And then, 12-15x is not a bargain. Maybe 6-7x is. Shame on those who bought at 12-15x. That is what is happening right now. Well playing the market is gambling, pure and simple. there are never guarantees. But if you buy now and it goes down even further, you can kick yourself or realize that rarely does anyone buy at the absolute low. If you think we're headed for Lord of Flies, then sure, get out altogether. I don't and think there are bargains to be had. After all this, the DJIA is still 1200 pts above where it was post-9/11. Make no mistake, this is a historic collapse, but if you have confidence it will eventually recover, there are bargains. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 My brother's strategy is not to look for the bottom, rather buy into the market when it is moving up after being down. Buying is done after selling when the market indicates a broad move down (which is what we just did). Yeah, that sounds good. Just right now, the market is moving way too fast for your average person to do that. Well if you just bought, I think it was a good investment. The fact that he sold weeks ago and bought back in was a good move, but that's playing a short game. Thats great if you are a professional and know what you are doing. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Well playing the market is gambling, pure and simple. there are never guarantees. But if you buy now and it goes down even further, you can kick yourself or realize that rarely does anyone buy at the absolute low. If you think we're headed for Lord of Flies, then sure, get out altogether. I don't and think there are bargains to be had. After all this, the DJIA is still 1200 pts above where it was post-9/11. Make no mistake, this is a historic collapse, but if you have confidence it will eventually recover, there are bargains. It should recover cause we will inject the economy with close to a trillion dollars. Once that runs out, then we are in bigger trouble, we need a bigger bailout, eventually leading to super-hyperinflation. Crash the dollar. Could we be like Zimbabwe? I think it can be likely if we keep up the pace. Invest in foreign stocks not involved with the US. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Yeah, that sounds good. Just right now, the market is moving way too fast for your average person to do that. Well if you just bought, I think it was a good investment. The fact that he sold weeks ago and bought back in was a good move, but that's playing a short game. Thats great if you are a professional and know what you are doing. Actually, we are out of the market now. Interestingly, he has had "buy signals" more than once in the last week or so, only to be rapidly followed by sell signals (neither time did we buy; we were already sold). I think his strategy right now is just to wait until the volatility mostly wears itself out. This might be some time. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Actually, we are out of the market now. Interestingly, he has had "buy signals" more than once in the last week or so, only to be rapidly followed by sell signals (neither time did we buy; we were already sold). I think his strategy right now is just to wait until the volatility mostly wears itself out. This might be some time. Gotta watch out cause the market could rebound really fast. It dropped at such a fast rate, the rise will be fast. You can easily miss the rise and find the market stabalize somewhat. This is why I just dont play the short term. Very risky, leave that to the professionals. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 Gotta watch out cause the market could rebound really fast. It dropped at such a fast rate, the rise will be fast. You can easily miss the rise and find the market stabalize somewhat. This is why I just dont play the short term. Very risky. I don't think anyone will be able to "miss" the rise And right now, when that will happen is anyone's guess. I surely am hoping soon. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Winston Legthigh Posted October 10, 2008 Share Posted October 10, 2008 I don't think anyone will be able to "miss" the rise And right now, when that will happen is anyone's guess. I surely am hoping soon.2-3 weeks from the bottom, is what I read from a hopeful report that crossed my desk today. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZenLunatic Posted October 13, 2008 Share Posted October 13, 2008 I don't think anyone will be able to "miss" the rise And right now, when that will happen is anyone's guess. I surely am hoping soon. Did you get in before the rise? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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