Election 2008

[mountain bed]

Exactly. When these threads got started back what seems like a decade ago many of us made the comment that HRC was unelectable. The events of the last two months seem to justify that idea. There's a whole lot of numbers being thrown around out there that describe the polarization this scorched earth approach is generating. Nearly a quarter of folks (in some polls, take with a grain of salt) are hinting that if HRC or Barack (depending on whose side you're on) get the nomination they'll either sit on their hands or vote McCain.

 

Sometimes this thought worries me.

[Edie]

Exactly. When these threads got started back what seems like a decade ago many of us made the comment that HRC was unelectable. The events of the last two months seem to justify that idea. There's a whole lot of numbers being thrown around out there that describe the polarization this scorched earth approach is generating. Nearly a quarter of folks (in some polls, take with a grain of salt) are hinting that if HRC or Barack (depending on whose side you're on) get the nomination they'll either sit on their hands or vote McCain.

 

Sometimes this thought worries me.

 

This is why I'm awake at 2 am

[Sir Stewart]

=

[Good Old Neon]

I don't think Hillary will stop until she is stopped. She will use every weapon at her disposal to get the nomination. She seems blind to the fact that if she does get the nomination, it will be a Pyhrric victory and guarantee a McCain presidency.

 

[MattZ]

I don't see how or why Hillary is unelectable if she can win PA at this stage of the game by double digits.

[MrRain422]

I don't see how or why Hillary is unelectable if she can win PA at this stage of the game by double digits.

 

Because the party primary is not the same as a general election. She would lose PA in the general (Obama might too) as well as several other states that Obama would have a good chance of winning.

[MattZ]

Because the party primary is not the same as a general election. She would lose PA in the general (Obama might too) as well as several other states that Obama would have a good chance of winning.

 

Why are you so certain that she would lose PA in the general? Most polls and articles I have read expect PA to go to the Dems in the general election. I think the argument most Obama supporters have been making recently is that the states that HRC has won (NY, CA, PA, etc) are states that the Dems always take anyway, so we need Obama who can win the states that Dems generally dont win (SC, etc).

 

It's unclear to me based on this most recent primary that Obama actually would win PA in the general because he doesnt appear to have the support of the Dems there that Hillary does. I'd think Hillary certainly has the better shot in PA in the general. No?

[JUDE]

[MrRain422]

Why are you so certain that she would lose PA in the general? Most polls and articles I have read expect PA to go to the Dems in the general election. I think the argument most Obama supporters have been making recently is that the states that HRC has won (NY, CA, PA, etc) are states that the Dems always take anyway, so we need Obama who can win the states that Dems generally dont win (SC, etc).

 

It's unclear to me based on this most recent primary that Obama actually would win PA in the general because he doesnt appear to have the support of the Dems there that Hillary does. I'd think Hillary certainly has the better shot in PA in the general. No?

 

I was thinking that Bush carried PA in '04. In light of the fact that Kerry in fact won there, I guess I'm a little more confident that Clinton would win in PA. A lot of it will depend on how well McCain's political metamorphosis over the last 8 years is portrayed in the press or if he will just be portrayed as the independent maverick whatever that he was thought to be in 2000.

 

I still think that in the fall, Obama is the better candidate in most states than Clinton is. Most importantly, he is more likely to bring out new voters. I think a lot of people see McCain and Clinton as two sides to the same old Washington coin. Perhaps Hillary would fare better in PA, but I don't think that her edge in PA is as pronounced as Obama's is in a lot of other states, including some that are traditional Republican strongholds that could go Dem this year with the right campaign.

[ikol]

 

"Our" refers to her and Bill.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

Clinton is actually polling better v. McCain than Obama is in most battleground states. Hard to say if that would translate come election time.

[MattZ]

Clinton is actually polling better v. McCain than Obama is in most battleground states. Hard to say if that would translate come election time.

 

can you post where you are seeing that? I'd be interested to see how the numbers break down. Last I saw, Obama was still polling better v McCain. Maybe things are changing?

[Sir Stewart]

What amazes me is that there are people out there who would vote for one but not the other come November.

[mountain bed]

What amazes me is that there are people out there who would vote for one but not the other come November.

Yeah, that's what they say now - directly after the heat of an ugly battle. We'll see what happens in the coming months.

[MattZ]

What amazes me is that there are people out there who would vote for one but not the other come November.

 

Some Dems seem to have a visceral hatred of Hillary. It's mind boggling to me.

[ikol]

What amazes me is that there are people out there who would vote for one but not the other come November.

 

Maybe they're the "independents" that vote on hairstyles instead of policies.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

can you post where you are seeing that? I'd be interested to see how the numbers break down. Last I saw, Obama was still polling better v McCain. Maybe things are changing?

No, it's been that way for a while. Obama is beating McCain in national polls, but struggling in battleground states. Either Dem candidate should get a boost once they secure the nomination.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...nnsylvania.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ident/ohio.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20.../wisconsin.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...nt/florida.html

[MattZ]

No, it's been that way for a while. Obama is beating McCain in national polls, but struggling in battleground states. Either Dem candidate should get a boost once they secure the nomination.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...nnsylvania.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ident/ohio.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20.../wisconsin.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...nt/florida.html

 

Thanks for posting that. Interesting.

[MrRain422]

Polls = calling people on the phone = you need a land line = not too many younger voters polled.

 

I honestly have no idea how much this might skew the results, but I have to think it's at least a little bit.

[Sir Stewart]

Polls = calling people on the phone = you need a land line = not too many younger voters polled.

 

I honestly have no idea how much this might skew the results, but I have to think it's at least a little bit.

This was the false hope invoked in 2004 when Kerry was behind Bush all summer.

[MrRain422]

This was the false hope invoked in 2004 when Kerry was behind Bush all summer.

 

This is true, though (purely anecdotally), it sure seems as though young people are a lot more excited about Obama than anyone was about Kerry.

[Edie]

Some Dems seem to have a visceral hatred of Hillary. It's mind boggling to me.

 

See, the thing is that it is becoming visceral for me. It wasn't four months ago.

 

I think that she feels like she was annointed to become president, and that she can run roughshod over someone who found a strong voice and won the backing from many many dems (not to mention independents or disaffected republicans). Also, Bill is really beginning to annoy me, and I was always a big fan of his. That saddens me, tbh.

[mountain bed]

Also, Bill is really beginning to annoy me, and I was always a big fan of his. That saddens me, tbh.

Yeah. That is perhaps the most depressing part for me.

[bobbob1313]

Polls = calling people on the phone = you need a land line = not too many younger voters polled.

 

I honestly have no idea how much this might skew the results, but I have to think it's at least a little bit.

 

Relying on the youth to vote is a surefire way to ensure a McCain victory.

[Sir Stewart]

Relying on the youth to vote is a surefire way to ensure a McCain victory.