General Political Thread

[Mr. Heartbreak]

This is pretty unbelievable.

 

http://www.aol.com/article/2013/11/27/americans-back-iran-deal-by-2-to-1-margin-reuters-ipsos-poll/20777491/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmaing14%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D412115

 

 Americans back last weekend's nuclear deal with Iran by a 2-to-1 margin and are very wary of the United States resorting to military action against Tehran even if the historic diplomatic effort falls through, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Tuesday.

 

The findings were rare good news in the polls for President Barack Obama, whose approval ratings have dropped in recent weeks because of the botched rollout of his signature healthcare reform law.

According to the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 44 percent of Americans support the interim deal reached between Iran and six world powers in Geneva, and 22 percent oppose it. While indicating little trust among Americans toward Iranian intentions, the survey also underscored a strong desire to avoid new U.S. military entanglements after long, costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Even if the Iran deal fails, 49 percent want the United States to increase sanctions and 31 percent think it should launch further diplomacy. But only 20 percent want U.S. military force to be used against Iran.

 

 

Only 20% of the Americans polled want to use military force against Iran? Seriously? What the hell? Who did they poll, John McCain? Damn, I would have that by now, that number would be about 98 or 99%. Well, at least most people want to either increase sanctions or use diplomacy if the deal fails.

 

Happy Thanksgiving fellow soldiers, er, Americans!

[Doug C]

While watching PBS.

Airing an episode of POV.

[Winston Legthigh]

fungry for a PB&J

[Hixter]

This is pretty unbelievable.

 

http://www.aol.com/article/2013/11/27/americans-back-iran-deal-by-2-to-1-margin-reuters-ipsos-poll/20777491/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmaing14%7Cdl1%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D412115

People still use AOL? I agree -- it's unbelievable.

[Mr. Heartbreak]

People still use AOL? I agree -- it's unbelievable.

I just have it as my homepage on my work computer. Now it's actually netscape.aol.com.

[John Smith]

I think it shows that the RW media influences about 20% of the people, down from 35 or so a couple of years ago.

 

Seriously though multinational diplomacy is worth a try. Besides if it fails we still have enough bombs and young men's blood to get them later, so there's always hope for the death dealers.

 

I can just picture it...right now there are people in Iran bitching about the deal because you just can't trust Americans. Perspective.

[Mr. Heartbreak]

I can just picture it...right now there are people in Iran bitching about the deal because you just can't trust Americans. Perspective.

I kind of understand their point. We do have a history (Vietnam, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, Iraq...)

 

Thing is, many people here in the U.S. confuse Iran with its government. The younger generation of Iranians are quite pro-Western in general. A good way to turn a whole generation - and about half their population - against us would be to intervene militarily there. Shame that so many Americans are totally ignorant about Iran.

 

Pretty good article here about the way things are there now in the modern age:

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/21/opinion/kristof-in-iran-they-want-fun-fun-fun.html?_r=0

[NoJ]

 

 

 

Only 20% of the Americans polled want to use military force against Iran? Seriously? What the hell? Who did they poll, John McCain? Damn, I would have that by now, that number would be about 98 or 99%. Well, at least most people want to either increase sanctions or use diplomacy if the deal fails.

 

 

Yesterday in the WSJ, Bret Stephens likened the agreement to Chamberlain's agreement with Hitler in '38.

[John Smith]

The conservative media hauls that tired analogy out every time we don't go to war...or so it seems

[Beltmann]

 

Thing is, many people here in the U.S. confuse Iran with its government. The younger generation of Iranians are quite pro-Western in general.

 

I'm acquainted with an Iranian woman who lives in Tehran--she visits my area regularly for work--and she confirms your observation about younger Iranians.

[lost highway]

Most of what I know about Iran, I learned from Persepolis.  Nothing to be proud of, but I suppose a memoir tells you something.  It would seem if young urban Iranians are enthusiastic about the west, it is because they see it as a place with more personal freedom and expression.  Rightfully so.  Meanwhile Iran seems to be going through an awkward, inevitable, but glacial shift towards being a moderate political culture.

 

From the U.S. perspective I can't get over how readily, and hungrily we hopped into wars with Afghanistan, and Iraq as relatively weak countries, yet we are oh-so careful with mighty Iran (and China).  In our recent hawkish days it would sound like our battles were only about principal, but we suddenly become focused on practicality when a push-over state is not in question.  It probably doesn't hurt that the U.S. has gotten its ass kicked in learning that just because you can topple a government doesn't mean that you can control a country.

 

In any case, all hypocrisy aside, I'm perfectly happy to have us not going to war.  The U.S. Army is best used to deliver aid in emergency situations.  Otherwise park the jets.

[Hixter]

Meanwhile Iran seems to be going through an awkward, inevitable, but glacial shift towards being a moderate political culture.

 

From the U.S. perspective I can't get over how readily, and hungrily we hopped into wars with Afghanistan, and Iraq as relatively weak countries, yet we are oh-so careful with mighty Iran

Iran is nowhere near "mighty" status, but the reasoning is clear: Iraq and Afghanistan were not in a position to cut off 30% of the world's oil production.

[lost highway]

HIxter, do you think I could find a video of a gathering in America that would make it look scary? (Westboro Baptist, Tea Part rally etc)

[Hixter]

HIxter, do you think I could find a video of a gathering in America that would make it look scary? (Westboro Baptist, Tea Part rally etc)

Westboro has fewer than 50 members and I don't recall Tea Party rallies being filled with burning flags.

 

This is a government-sponsored rally attended by thousands of people chanting "Death to America." The regime has been at it for decades and they aren't afraid to put their money where their mouths are.

[uncool2pillow]

There are plenty in Iran who share the sentiment of those protesters.  The government would fully endorse, support, and maybe even instigate this kind of protest.  How would a pro-American rally be received in Iran?  The Iranian government controls what we see and what we know about their country the way the USSR used to.  I traveled to East Germany in 1987 and was shocked by all the love the East Germans showed to Americans.  The media can never give us a full picture of the truth.

[Hixter]

The government has been organizing these rallies for decades. Again, I point out that rallies by individuals -- kooks or not -- are completely different than government-sponsored/instigated rallies. If some nutjob Tea Partiers wave signs that say "Obama is a closet Muslim bent on destroying America" I'll just roll my eyes and walk away. I wouldn't have done that if President Bush had organized rallies with thousands of people burning Iraqi flags and shouting "Death to Iraq!"

 

As for Americans visiting Iran, a friend of a friend has been held captive there (and sentenced to death) for a couple of years now. 

[Beltmann]

I also have a friend of a friend who has visited Iran numerous times, and always returns insistent that the people of Iran are warm, friendly, and privately very supportive of Western democracy.  He also says that foreigners are typically much safer than citizens, since the Iranian government knows that detaining foreigners leads, potentially, to international embarrassment.  I can't vouch for any of that, but if we're trading anecdotes rather than facts, that's what I've got.

 

I've had a particular interest in Iranian cinema for 15 years.  That study has included, by extension, a keen interest in Iranian culture and her people.  Recently I've spent a lot of time chatting with an Iranian filmmaker (both in person and online), and she feels very optimistic about the political situation in Iran.  She said that the people in Iran feel a sea change coming on--but she still acknowledged that the gains are precarious.  "It looks good right now, but you never know," she said to me a few weeks ago.

[Hixter]

He also says that foreigners are typically much safer than citizens, since the Iranian government knows that detaining foreigners leads, potentially, to international embarrassment. I can't vouch for any of that, but if we're trading anecdotes rather than facts, that's what I've got.

Just to be clear, I wasn't exchanging anecdotes. My best friend's friend has been held in Iran for more than 2 years. He was sentenced to death and the Iranian regime seems unconcerned about creating an embarrassing international incident.

[uncool2pillow]

You seem insistent that the regime = the sentiment of all the people. That's hardly true in a democracy let alone a regime like Iran's. I am sorry for your friend, I really am. No question their regime is pretty shitty. Having said that, there is plenty of evidence that there are lots of great people in Iran. Probably many who would stand up for you friend if they weren't scared of ending up like him.

[caliber66]

Just to be clear, I wasn't exchanging anecdotes. My best friend's friend has been held in Iran for more than 2 years. He was sentenced to death and the Iranian regime seems unconcerned about creating an embarrassing international incident.

That is an anecdote.

[Hixter]

That is an anecdote.

It's also a cold, hard fact that's directly related to the conversation at hand.

[Hixter]

You seem insistent that the regime = the sentiment of all the people.

Not at all. But the regime is what counts. They call the shots. If mushroom clouds erupt in the region it won't matter how friendly and well-meaning the citizens are.

[caliber66]

It's also a cold, hard fact that's directly related to the conversation at hand.

Sure. You probably shouldn't say you're not trading anecdotes and then throw out an anecdote, though.

[Hixter]

Sure. You probably shouldn't say you're not trading anecdotes and then throw out an anecdote, though.

The original poster's remark was "trading anecdotes rather than fact."

[lost highway]

Two different things here.

 

This thread of the conversation started with the culture of Iran.  Maybe some of the misunderstanding came from my vague use of the term "political culture", by which I didn't mean the regime, but the popular ideologies, values and social conscience which translates as the political interest of the majority, not the administration.  As is typically the situation (see China) where gradual reform creates a combination of incomplete but noteworthy changes that fast-forwarded decades would look something like a semi-successful revolution.

 

Hixter is focused on the Iranian regime.  Because as he says that's "what counts".  But we're talking about what Iran as a whole believes in.