Wendy Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Been trying to find one more Radiohead ticket for my friend who decided to go with me at the last minute. I was doing this one solo, so there are only 2 seats I am interested in - one on either side of me. It is a sold out show. 6000 reserved seats in the Pavilion at Verizon Wireless in Indy. So here's my question for you math whizes ... what are the odds of me finding one of those two reserved seats? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Moe_Syzlak Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 So here's my question for you math whizes ... what are the odds of me finding one of those two reserved seats? Calculating all data and aligning my abacus along the Y axis of my slide rule, I get the following result: not good. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
IRememberDBoon Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 just sneak them down and fit in somewhere Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Wendy Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 Ah, yes, I know we can do that if there's some empty seats (it is sold out) ... but I was more curious about the math part. What are the odds? I don't know how to figure it, or if it is even possible to calculate odds when a show is sold out and you are hoping someone sells them again. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
benjamin Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Ah, yes, I know we can do that if there's some empty seats (it is sold out) ... but I was more curious about the math part. What are the odds? I don't know how to figure it, or if it is even possible to calculate odds when a show is sold out and you are hoping someone sells them again. I'm taking statistics online, but unfortunately this chapter hasn't come up yet. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jenbobblehead Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I'm taking statistics online, but unfortunately this chapter hasn't come up yet. Ron Cey would know. Ron Cey knew odds. so just ask JUDE. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Duck-Billed Catechist Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 So you want to know the odds of getting tickets to a sold out show? A sold out show meaning that no tickets are available? Is this really a math question? I'm confused. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
kimcatch22 Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I know that any number times zero is zero, if that helps. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jenbobblehead Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 So you want to know the odds of getting tickets to a sold out show? A sold out show meaning that no tickets are avaialble? Is this really a math question? I'm confused.she wants to know not only what are the odds of scoring tickets to a sold out show, but what are the odds of being able to score tickets to the left and right of the ticket she already has. i can't believe that I, the mathmoron, has to explain that to you people. There is probably a percentage of tickets that become available even though the show is sold out, what is that percentage, and is it possible that the tickets next to wendy could be in that batch? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JUDE Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Ron Cey would know. Ron Cey knew odds. so just ask JUDE. I am flattered to no end that you hold me in the same high regard as Mr. Ron (matt1036) Cey. But alas I am a separate person, sorry to disappoint. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Won't a factor be how many people without tickets will be trying to get tickets? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Duck-Billed Catechist Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 she wants to know not only what are the odds of scoring tickets to a sold out show, but what are the odds of being able to score tickets to the left and right of the ticket she already has. i can't believe that I, the mathmoron, has to explain that to you people. Well, there's not nearly enough data to figure the bolded out. That's my point. It would just be speculation. If there was one person selling one ticket and she has first dibs, the odds that it would be one of the tickets she wants would be 2/5999 - or approximately 1 in 3000. I think. I can get you that far. Best method would be to post that you're looking for those specific tickets on craigslist or a radiohead board or whatever, but obviously the chances of that working are slim. She could search for those tickets on craigslist, ebay, radiohead boards, and ticket broker sites. If you're wondering whether it's worth it to try to find those tickets on location before the show -- the answer is no. The other methods probably aren't worthwhile either, but no one has to spend all that much time doing them. there is probably a percentage of tickets that become available even though the show is sold out, what is that percentage, and is it possible that the tickets next to wendy could be in that batch?That would be more of an industry guestimate than a math question. You would have to have the industry info to do the math. Possible that those tix are available? Yes. Likely for her to find those tickets before anyone else does? No. No math involved. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Jules Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 the only time I've been able to find a specific seat, I used stubhub. Paid through the nose, but it was nice to find the exact seat. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JUDE Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I knew a guy in college who was nick named "dibs". Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Jules Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I knew a guy in college who was nick named "dibs".good story, JUDE. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
deepseacatfish Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Ah, yes, I know we can do that if there's some empty seats (it is sold out) ... but I was more curious about the math part. What are the odds? I don't know how to figure it, or if it is even possible to calculate odds when a show is sold out and you are hoping someone sells them again.The problem is the number of variables involved. You could calculate an estimate...but you would have to know... The number of tickets needed out of the number of tickets total.The average chance that someone does not attend the concert and is willing to sell a ticket.And then the chance you have of purchasing that ticket. And likely some more complexities to those variables...but we'll skip that. So theoretically if you need 1 ticket, you have a 1 in 3000 chance that it is the seat next to yours.If the chance of someone not attending the concert and selling is 1 in 50And if the chance that you get it is 1 in 4 Then the total probability would be: 1 in 600,000. Of course, that's based on pretty much totally made up numbers. I'm sure a statistician could figure it out bette.r Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mountain bed Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 There will be tickets that magically appear on the day of show. Not many, of course, but if you're vigilant on the internets on the DOS you'll score one, from my experience. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
John Smith Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 I think the odds of finding the seats are 100% since they are on either side of you. However actually finding the ticket holders before they get into the venue are probably close to zero. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jenbobblehead Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 this is my favorite thread! Graham is right. we need to find the industry percentage of sold out shows that end up having tickets available. For example when you plan a party, you always can count on 10% of the people who RSVPed not to show up, but at the same time the caterer will always prepare enough food as though 110% people show up. Somehow it all works out. math is funny that way. You invite 30% more people to an event than you can actually hold, because that's about how many will decline an invitation or not RSVP at all. so there must be some sort of number regarding sold out events. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Wendy Posted July 15, 2008 Author Share Posted July 15, 2008 the only time I've been able to find a specific seat, I used stubhub. Paid through the nose, but it was nice to find the exact seat. DING DING DING !!! We have a winner! My seat: Sec. H, Row J, seat 22 StubHub: Sec H, Row J seat 21 ... and only paid $38 more than my Ticketmaster seat (*coughfeescough*) So I think I love StubHub today. (Sorry, I didn't want to lead you on any further, but you had to know where I was going with this ... although I really did want to know what the odds were. ) Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edie Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Wow -- awesome! I would have suggested you sell the one, and then buy two together, but you solved it! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gobias Industries Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Oh, bugger. I just missed the fun. Damn nap. I was going to crack some joke as to how the chances are nil, but... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Duck-Billed Catechist Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 Good times! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Jules Posted July 15, 2008 Share Posted July 15, 2008 you're welcome - what do I win? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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