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Been trying to find one more Radiohead ticket for my friend who decided to go with me at the last minute.

 

I was doing this one solo, so there are only 2 seats I am interested in - one on either side of me.

 

It is a sold out show.

 

6000 reserved seats in the Pavilion at Verizon Wireless in Indy.

 

 

 

So here's my question for you math whizes ... what are the odds of me finding one of those two reserved seats? :lol

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So here's my question for you math whizes ... what are the odds of me finding one of those two reserved seats? :lol

Calculating all data and aligning my abacus along the Y axis of my slide rule, I get the following result: not good.

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Ah, yes, I know we can do that if there's some empty seats (it is sold out) ... but I was more curious about the math part. What are the odds? I don't know how to figure it, or if it is even possible to calculate odds when a show is sold out and you are hoping someone sells them again.

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Ah, yes, I know we can do that if there's some empty seats (it is sold out) ... but I was more curious about the math part. What are the odds? I don't know how to figure it, or if it is even possible to calculate odds when a show is sold out and you are hoping someone sells them again.

 

I'm taking statistics online, but unfortunately this chapter hasn't come up yet. :mellow

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So you want to know the odds of getting tickets to a sold out show? A sold out show meaning that no tickets are avaialble? Is this really a math question? I'm confused.

she wants to know not only what are the odds of scoring tickets to a sold out show, but what are the odds of being able to score tickets to the left and right of the ticket she already has. i can't believe that I, the mathmoron, has to explain that to you people. There is probably a percentage of tickets that become available even though the show is sold out, what is that percentage, and is it possible that the tickets next to wendy could be in that batch?

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Ron Cey would know. Ron Cey knew odds. so just ask JUDE.

 

I am flattered to no end that you hold me in the same high regard as Mr. Ron (matt1036) Cey.

 

But alas I am a separate person, sorry to disappoint.

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she wants to know not only what are the odds of scoring tickets to a sold out show, but what are the odds of being able to score tickets to the left and right of the ticket she already has. i can't believe that I, the mathmoron, has to explain that to you people.

 

Well, there's not nearly enough data to figure the bolded out. That's my point. It would just be speculation.

 

If there was one person selling one ticket and she has first dibs, the odds that it would be one of the tickets she wants would be 2/5999 - or approximately 1 in 3000.

 

I think. I can get you that far.

 

Best method would be to post that you're looking for those specific tickets on craigslist or a radiohead board or whatever, but obviously the chances of that working are slim. She could search for those tickets on craigslist, ebay, radiohead boards, and ticket broker sites. If you're wondering whether it's worth it to try to find those tickets on location before the show -- the answer is no. The other methods probably aren't worthwhile either, but no one has to spend all that much time doing them.

 

there is probably a percentage of tickets that become available even though the show is sold out, what is that percentage, and is it possible that the tickets next to wendy could be in that batch?

That would be more of an industry guestimate than a math question. You would have to have the industry info to do the math.

 

Possible that those tix are available? Yes. Likely for her to find those tickets before anyone else does? No. No math involved.

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Ah, yes, I know we can do that if there's some empty seats (it is sold out) ... but I was more curious about the math part. What are the odds? I don't know how to figure it, or if it is even possible to calculate odds when a show is sold out and you are hoping someone sells them again.

The problem is the number of variables involved. You could calculate an estimate...but you would have to know...

 

The number of tickets needed out of the number of tickets total.

The average chance that someone does not attend the concert and is willing to sell a ticket.

And then the chance you have of purchasing that ticket.

 

And likely some more complexities to those variables...but we'll skip that.

 

So theoretically if you need 1 ticket, you have a 1 in 3000 chance that it is the seat next to yours.

If the chance of someone not attending the concert and selling is 1 in 50

And if the chance that you get it is 1 in 4

 

Then the total probability would be: 1 in 600,000.

 

Of course, that's based on pretty much totally made up numbers. I'm sure a statistician could figure it out bette.r

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There will be tickets that magically appear on the day of show. Not many, of course, but if you're vigilant on the internets on the DOS you'll score one, from my experience.

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this is my favorite thread!

 

Graham is right. we need to find the industry percentage of sold out shows that end up having tickets available. For example when you plan a party, you always can count on 10% of the people who RSVPed not to show up, but at the same time the caterer will always prepare enough food as though 110% people show up. Somehow it all works out. math is funny that way. You invite 30% more people to an event than you can actually hold, because that's about how many will decline an invitation or not RSVP at all. so there must be some sort of number regarding sold out events.

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the only time I've been able to find a specific seat, I used stubhub. Paid through the nose, but it was nice to find the exact seat.

 

DING DING DING !!! We have a winner!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My seat: Sec. H, Row J, seat 22

 

StubHub: Sec H, Row J seat 21

 

:lol :dancing :thumbup :pirate

 

 

 

 

... and only paid $38 more than my Ticketmaster seat (*coughfeescough*) So :worship I think I love StubHub today.

 

 

 

 

 

(Sorry, I didn't want to lead you on any further, but you had to know where I was going with this ;) ... although I really did want to know what the odds were. :angel )

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