Duck-Billed Catechist

I think that contingent is no larger at this point than might usually be expected. Obama is doing pretty well amongst self-identified Democrats at this point. The long, hotly contested primary has actually helped him, as he's had his field operations already in place for the general.

Right, but it might not this year (unusually) is all.

Right, I mean, a bellwether state will more or less match up with the national polls. The national polls have Obama, on average, at +7%. They have him leading in Missouri by 1 or 2 points. So MO is +5 for McCain as compared to where the rest of the nation is and consistently has been around that mark.

Polling indicates that Missouri isn't so much of a bellwether this year. It's been +5 for the Republicans vs. the national average for most of the season. There are a few very plausible routes to victory for Obama that don't include MO, but it would pretty much seal the deal if he did win it.

Is there any evidence that Singletary is a good coach, though? I mean, the Niners defense was pretty terrible under his watch.

Funny interview: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxT0ELP7az0

I went the summer after sixth grade. Really enjoyed it, but not much advice (for obvious reasons). We stayed in a rain forest, at a hotel, and an electricity-less resort on a river. We visited the national zoo, went snorkeling, canoeing, and went to Xunantanich. I did get a botfly in my back, actually, and still have a scar to show for it. None of the midwestern doctors knew what it was--they all thought it was just a bad infection. One of them killed it when they were trying to squeeze pus out and my body started pushing it out the next day. Awesome. Really, not THAT big of a deal, just so

I'm pretty sure that was hype for his SNL appearance two days later or whatever. Andy Kaufman and Jerry Lawler--that sort of thing. Acting. Also like http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PZNfOZXPJk

Both. Mostly the former, because most people haven't voted yet. One of the kinda stupid things about Zogby is that their likely voter model is always based on the last election in terms of party self-identification. So Zogby's likely voters are made up of an even amount of self-identified Republicans and Democrats (which is what was found in exit surveys in 2004), even though Democrats have a +10% edge in party ID today. Here is some older data on early voters: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/oba...-voters-in.html

Zogby is a terrible tracking poll. It's all over the map. (See also that they had Obama leading by 12 points a few days ago, which is also unrealistic).

Sorry. I just thought it was funny, given that I had joked about (hypothetical) Deadheads 4 McCain in the election thread.

Paul Wellstone died 6 years ago yesterday.

He's probably not. That's just one poll.

I am, though!

We already have these factions (and more). They operate under the big tent of each party because they want to govern.

I remember having these conversations after the 2004 election. After they failed miserably at every level then, the Dems really just got better at campaigning and getting out the vote. There wasn't a major ideological shift. They've also benefitted from current events (Iraq war, economic crisis). I doubt that the Republicans will have a major shift, either.

Yeah, I heard part of it.

That seems like a reference to this famous photo of Adlai Stevenson . Adlai is sort of Obama's political grandfather (Paul Simon got his start as a newspaper publisher that influenced Governor Stevenson, Obama won his Democratic primary in part because of an endorsement from the recently-deceased Senator) and the two have been compared because of their speaking ability.

You can edit your post to quote the original if you really care.

I'm rolling this (McCain gaffe) into the election thread, too. Order must be restored! ::joins Obama youth group::

FYI, I am going to roll this into the regular election thread. We have plenty of these types of clips there as well.

You must be from the Communist section of VA.

There is at least one pollster who agrees with you: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann...ty-turnout.html

I'm not sure. Either way, I don't think he would like being a Senator.