Election 2008

[bobbob1313]

What he said.

[Edie]

Yeah. That is perhaps the most depressing part for me.

 

The first (and only) living president that I could imagine having sex with. True story.

[Sir Stewart]

The first (and only) living president that I could imagine having sex with. True story.

Hopefully come fall I can say that about Obama.

[EL the Famous]

i'll vote for hillary should she get the nod, but it'll be begrudgingly and under the auspices my vote has a snowball's chance in hell of electing her president.

 

i don't 'hate' her...i just don't like the way she carries herself. like i've said before, you can be right on the money w/ your platform and stance on the issues that matter to me...but you also need to be somebody i can truly believe will be able to get as many people together as possible to actually make those policies happen.

 

i don't see that in her.

[MrRain422]

Relying on the youth to vote is a surefire way to ensure a McCain victory.

 

Absolutely. The youth vote never turns out in quite the way they're predicted to every single election cycle. But I don't think that that means that we shouldn't even bother considering it's effects. Obama may bring out some new voters and he may not. Hillary almost certainly will not.

[MrRain422]

If Hillary gets the nomination, whether or not I will vote for her will depend on the circumstances under which she got it. If she somehow does manage to bring both the popular vote and pledged delegate tally to within a close enough margin for it to really be a tossup for the super delegates, then I will vote for her, though begrudgingly. But if Obama goes into the convention still with reasonably significant leads in both the popular vote and in pledged delegates, and the superdelegates decide to award the nomination to her anyway, then I may vote third party or not vote. Even though I certainly agree with Clinton on a lot more issues than I agree with McCain on, if she wins the nomination in such a blatantly undemocratic manner, then I will be unable to support the system that put her in that position. It's difficult to weigh democratic principles themselves vs. the issues at play in this election, but there's a certain point where the whole system is too corrupt to mean anything.

[EL the Famous]

there's a certain point where the whole system is too corrupt to mean anything.

 

i think we've rounded that point more times than chevy chase rounded big ben/parliament in 'european vacation.'

[bjorn_skurj]

Relying on the youth to vote is a surefire way to ensure a McCain victory.

Yep.

I think Obama is cooked, actually, and this is my reasoning. Obama's fundamental appeal is emotional - people (including myself) voted for him because it felt good to do so, like we were affirming hope. He really has no record to run on; he has positions and opinions, but no real track record, other than being prescient enough to oppose the Iraq war back in the day. When you have a feelings-based campaign, you need a messianic surge of good feeling to get you past the fact that a lot of people not normally disposed to messianic feeling will suspect you of being a bullshit artist. This death struggle with Hillary has stopped this surge dead in its tracks, and the "bitter" comment has only deepened suspicions among non-Obamaistsas that he is a bullshit artist. People yearn for change, well, some do, but they are also scared of it. Barack needed to walk a very fine line - promising change, but not too much and in the context of not blaspheming the American civic religion. Absent Hillary, he may well have been able to walk it.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

Double-digit win for Hil today, me thinks.

So it was around that.

Guam - who cares, it's only four delegates

North Carolina 05/06 115-Big Obama win

Indiana - 05/06 72 narrow Obama win

West Virginia 05/13 - Clinton

Oregon 05/20 52 C -Obama

Kentucky 05/20 51 -Clinton

Puerto Rico 06/01 55 - Clinton (she could take all the delegates here based on weird rules)

Montana 06/03 16 - Obama

South Dakota 06/03 15 -Obama

 

So...split the rest of the delegates (depending on how Puerto Rico works out). That would give Obama roughly 1917 delegates (counting those supers who have said they'll vote for him). He would need about 110 of the heretofore unpledged supers at that point.

[Mr. Kinsley]

See, the thing is that it is becoming visceral for me. It wasn't four months ago.

 

I think that she feels like she was annointed to become president, and that she can run roughshod over someone who found a strong voice and won the backing from many many dems (not to mention independents or disaffected republicans). Also, Bill is really beginning to annoy me, and I was always a big fan of his. That saddens me, tbh.

My feelings exactly.

 

...but you also need to be somebody i can truly believe will be able to get as many people together as possible to actually make those policies happen.

 

i don't see that in her.

Seeing as she's the person who coined the phrase "vast right-wing conspiracy," I REEEEEALLY don't see that in her.

 

 

For what it's worth, the 'bitter' comment handed McCain the presidency. Obama won't be able to shed that image in the battleground states, and Clinton can't beat Johnny Mac due to her vote for the war/I want to end this horrible war stance.

[Good Old Neon]

Yep.

I think Obama is cooked, actually, and this is my reasoning. Obama's fundamental appeal is emotional - people (including myself) voted for him because it felt good to do so, like we were affirming hope. He really has no record to run on; he has positions and opinions, but no real track record, other than being prescient enough to oppose the Iraq war back in the day. When you have a feelings-based campaign, you need a messianic surge of good feeling to get you past the fact that a lot of people not normally disposed to messianic feeling will suspect you of being a bullshit artist. This death struggle with Hillary has stopped this surge dead in its tracks, and the "bitter" comment has only deepened suspicions among non-Obamaistsas that he is a bullshit artist. People yearn for change, well, some do, but they are also scared of it. Barack needed to walk a very fine line - promising change, but not too much and in the context of not blaspheming the American civic religion. Absent Hillary, he may well have been able to walk it.

 

Excellent post, Bjorn.

[mountain bed]

For what it's worth, the 'bitter' comment handed McCain the presidency.

I'll respectfully disagree. As long as the Dems keep the name McCain synonymous with Bush there's no real need to get crazy upset yet.

[laurie]

Excellent post, Bjorn.

 

 

Second that- seems a good analysis. I am worried......

[tugmoose]

I'll respectfully disagree. As long as the Dems keep the name McCain synonymous with Bush there's no real need to get crazy upset yet.

They're starting to call him "McSame" - wow, how clever. Can't wait for their other new ideas.

 

Clinton derangee Andrew Sullivan sums things up nicely here.

 

"After this presidency, after eight years of war and debt and torture and deceit and cynicism, to see the Democratic party self-destruct is really something. They were given a chance to remake the country and regain their soul; and the Clintons could not bear it if they were not the vehicles for such a shift. I don't believe anyone in the Democratic party can or will stop them. This is a kamikaze mission."

[mountain bed]

Wow Tug that really spells it out nice and concise-like.

[Edie]

She is now claiming a lead in the popular vote due to FL and MI. The spin machine is in full force!

[bjorn_skurj]

She is now claiming a lead in the popular vote due to FL and MI. The spin machine is in full force!

That's the wedge she will use to attempt to pry the nomination loose. Her argument to the superdelegates will hinge upon that, and her saying Obama won't win the battleground states. A shame Al Gore didn't want to run.

[mountain bed]

All I'll say at this moment is that I'm as happy as a pig in shit that Indiana is getting the love right now. I remember posting back in January that it might be all over after Super Tuesday and once again my trip to the primary polls would just be a fruitless exercise. Not this time kids - I hope we and NC will drive another nail in the coffin for HRC.

[Edie]

Hopefully, we'll only have to weather this for another couple of weeks. IN and NC ought to help take the supposed wind from her sails

[Elixir Sue]

Hopefully, we'll only have to weather this for another couple of weeks. IN and NC ought to help take the supposed wind from her sails

[Tweedling]

Yep.

I think Obama is cooked, actually, and this is my reasoning. Obama's fundamental appeal is emotional - people (including myself) voted for him because it felt good to do so, like we were affirming hope. He really has no record to run on; he has positions and opinions, but no real track record, other than being prescient enough to oppose the Iraq war back in the day. When you have a feelings-based campaign, you need a messianic surge of good feeling to get you past the fact that a lot of people not normally disposed to messianic feeling will suspect you of being a bullshit artist. This death struggle with Hillary has stopped this surge dead in its tracks, and the "bitter" comment has only deepened suspicions among non-Obamaistsas that he is a bullshit artist. People yearn for change, well, some do, but they are also scared of it. Barack needed to walk a very fine line - promising change, but not too much and in the context of not blaspheming the American civic religion. Absent Hillary, he may well have been able to walk it.

That's kinda what I was thinking. Minus the term: non-Obamaistsas.

I think Americans are questioning who this person really is.

Oh, I just remembered. It's change. ..................

[MrRain422]

Clinton's claim to hold the lead in the popular vote is dubious not only because it includes Florida and Michigan, but also because apparently people who voted in caucuses don't count.

[jc4prez]

What is it about Obama that makes you people think he isn't on the same trip as Bush?

 

Neither he or Clinton have addressed are out of control military budget. My belief being that nothing is going to change. Frankly I think its the second main reason that neither candidate will address single payer health care, you can't topple the middle east and give your own citizens health care at the same time.

 

 

I know you guys don't believe McCain has a chance but I'm willing to bet that McCain wins if he is put up against Hillary and maybe even Obama (only because his use of the word change may be a little to scary for middle america). But look at how the media treats mccain, they love the guy. The other day he announced that Iran was training al qaeda and then had to be corrected by liberman (after making the statement several times).

 

 

For all of you who are skeptical of McCain's abiltly to win this race need to check this interview with Gleen Greenwald on Democracy Now. http://www.democracynow.org/2008/4/18/grea...nn_greenwald_on

[Good Old Neon]

Obama

[Moe_Syzlak]

Yep.

I think Obama is cooked, actually, and this is my reasoning. Obama's fundamental appeal is emotional - people (including myself) voted for him because it felt good to do so, like we were affirming hope. He really has no record to run on; he has positions and opinions, but no real track record, other than being prescient enough to oppose the Iraq war back in the day. When you have a feelings-based campaign, you need a messianic surge of good feeling to get you past the fact that a lot of people not normally disposed to messianic feeling will suspect you of being a bullshit artist. This death struggle with Hillary has stopped this surge dead in its tracks, and the "bitter" comment has only deepened suspicions among non-Obamaistsas that he is a bullshit artist. People yearn for change, well, some do, but they are also scared of it. Barack needed to walk a very fine line - promising change, but not too much and in the context of not blaspheming the American civic religion. Absent Hillary, he may well have been able to walk it.

I don't really agree. Obama has done a better job of marketing than any Democrat I can remember and that, unfortunately, is what presidential elections have come down to.. Primaries are for the base; the general is decided by the middle, undecideds (which is kinda scary because they are generally the ones who don't pay any attention, but that is for another day). Undecideds vote on emotional appeal, IMO. Look at how W was elected because he repeated over and over, ad nauseum "compassionate conservative." Those paying attention knew it was BS, but it still worked. The last elections emotional appeal was fear. Most the country now feels things are going in the wrong direction and want out of Iraq. In other words, they want "change." That could be enough, particularly if the surge in Iraq that McCain pins his hopes to isn't successful (I hope it is successful, for the record).