MLB 2008 PT 2

[Sir Stewart]

Transferring allegiance from one team to another is unforgivable, outside of special childhood-based circumstances such as death, divorce, etc.

 

 

Or the biggest September collapse in baseball history.

 

Say it ain't so, man.

I haven't, but feel I would be within my rights to do so.

 

I dare ya.

 

 

M-E-T-S Mets METS METS!!!!!!

[bobbob1313]

I hope the Mets keep winning and the Phillies keep losing because the Mets will be a much easier team to beat in September.

[jenbobblehead]

i laffed.

[bjorn_skurj]

I hope the Mets keep winning and the Phillies keep losing because the Mets Marlins will be a much easier team to beat in September.

[bobbob1313]

I won't disagree with that. The Phillies are the best team in the division, and the Marlins and Mets are probably about even. Thus, as a person who wants the Marlins to make the playoffs, I want to see the weaker of the two opponents do better until the end of the season. Calm down.

[MattZ]

Yeah this is going to be a crazy week. I just hope people can chill out a bit and realize that no matter what happens we still have a looooong way to go. If this season (baseball or election) has taught us anything, it's that there is no such thing as momentum. The Mets just need to keep playing hard every day and not treat this series in July as the playoffs. The Mets of old would have won 2 of 3 in this series and then gotten swept by the Padres after this series was over given the inevitable let down.

 

bjorn - hang with me here. lay low, be cautiously optimistic. Don't take the bait. Dont take it.

 

The Phillies are the best team in the division, and the Marlins and Mets are probably about even.

 

Um, no. The Mets are the best team in the division. By 1 game. And the Marlins are the third best team in the division.

 

(sorry bjorn, I tried. I know I shouldn't take the bait. Damnit!)

[bobbob1313]

The Phillies are the best team in the division, the Mets have the best record, the Marlins are ruining baseball with their non-traditional logos, the Braves are racist, and the Nationals just plain stink.

[Smokestack Joe]

no love for Brewers here.....

 

that's ok.

[MattZ]

The Phillies are the best team in the division, the Mets have the best record.

 

Not sure what you base "best team in the division" on if not record. Effort? Intangibles?

[bobbob1313]

The Brewers don't play in the East, though if they did, they'd probably be the best team in the division.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

Not sure what you base "best team in the division" on if not record. Effort? Intangibles?

Well, run differential is considered to be a better predictor of future success than w-l record.

[bobbob1313]

Not sure what you base "best team in the division" on if not record. Effort? Intangibles?

 

Run differential, Pythagorean record, ERA, Runs scored. You know, statistics? Real things?

 

Each team has 2 great hitters, some pop around them, and some crap. The Marlins probably have the best offense, though they play in the worst hitter's park, so their total run numbers are slightly lower. The Phillies have far and away the best pitching, though Joe Blanton isn't really anything more than a neutral addition, the Marlins have the worst pitching, though the starters should be a lot better since they are replacing 2 spots that had eras in the sixes for 2 guys who should put up no worse than low 4's.

 

The Phillies pen is stacked, and that probably gives them the biggest lead, though bullpens are notoriously fickle, and that could change any minute. It's really a toss up, with the odds of winning the division probably something like:

 

Phillies 35%

Mets 30%

Marlins 25%

Braves 8%

Nats 2%

[MattZ]

You know, statistics? Real things?

 

How about real things like W-L record? I don't think there are more important statistics than those.

 

And I am not talking about predictions for what happens at the end of the season. I am not arguing that W-L record predicts future success. You said the Phillies were the best team in the division and I interpreted your statement to be referring to now. As in, today. And today, the Mets are 1 game better than the Phillies. After 100 games which is a decent sample size.

 

Not trying to overstate the significance of a 1 game lead either. Just that I think we have all the evidence we need to see that after 100 games, the best team in the division is the team alone in first.

 

I am such a sucker for the bait. Damnit.

[bobbob1313]

Really? You couldn't tell I was speaking in general and not referring to the W/L record? Really? You couldn't tell I was speaking in regards to the season as a whole when I said the Phillies were the team I was more worried about in September? Really?

 

Really?

 

Obviously the Mets have the best record right now. Nobody could debate that because it is fact. That doesn't mean they are the best team in the division this year, and it doesn't mean they will have the best record even tonight.

 

What bait? The bait of discussing baseball in a baseball thread?

[jenbobblehead]

The Phillies are the best team in the division, the Mets have the best record, the Marlins are ruining baseball with their non-traditional logos, the Braves are racist, and the Nationals just plain stink.

the food at Nationals Stadium is pretty good though, and I'm sorry but only the sausage race is as awesome as the Presidents' Head Race!

[mfwahl]

no love for Brewers here.....

 

that's ok.

I am truly happy for your recent success. (half-sarcastic). There's prob a lot of Cubs fans on here

 

 

(My Braves are shit)

[MattZ]

Really? You couldn't tell I was speaking in general and not referring to the W/L record? Really? You couldn't tell I was speaking in regards to the season as a whole when I said the Phillies were the team I was more worried about in September? Really?

 

No, I couldn't tell. You are correct, after your initial post, you went on to state that you were most worried about the Phillies in September. But I thought the point of your initial post was that the Phillies are the best team in the division right now. And for a guy who relies so much on VORP and OBP, I was surprised that you were having such a tough time with GB.

 

To be honest bobbob, I wouldn't have been surprised if you argued that even though the Mets are in first by 1 game, that the run differential and ERA and whatever other statistics you've got prove that the Phillies are still better today. I thought that was what you were arguing initially.

 

 

What bait? The bait of discussing baseball in a baseball thread?

 

No, the bait of getting a big head about one's favorite team before it is appropriate to do so (e.g., in July).

[bobbob1313]

No, I couldn't tell. You are correct, after your initial post, you went on to state that you were most worried about the Phillies in September. But I thought the point of your initial post was that the Phillies are the best team in the division right now. And for a guy who relies so much on VORP and OBP, I was surprised that you were having such a tough time with GB.

 

To be honest bobbob, I wouldn't have been surprised if you argued that even though the Mets are in first by 1 game, that the run differential and ERA and whatever other statistics you've got prove that the Phillies are still better today. I thought that was what you were arguing initially.

 

 

I hope the Mets keep winning and the Phillies keep losing because the Mets will be a much easier team to beat in September.

 

That was my initial post. I think that implies that in the long term, I think the Phillies are the more difficult team to beat in September, or at the very least it implies that the Mets will be the easier team to beat in September.

 

And yes, the Phillies are the better team today, yesterday, and going forward. The best team doesn't always have the best record. There are tons of things that can affect a team's W/L, mostly luck.

 

I have no problem reading standings or understanding games back. I just put very little stock in a team's record at 100 games. It doesn't really matter what their record is until after game 162, and even then, the team with the best record might not be the best team. They will have the best record, and they will be allowed to move onto the playoffs and try to win the world championship, but they won't be the best team. For instance, the Diamondbacks last year were not the best team in their division, they just had a combination of a great bullpen and incredible luck that pushed them past their abilities.

[bjorn_skurj]

Calm down.

No!

 

[sweetheart-mine]

i like the mets, post-1986. i don't know why. but the wiki says this, which may be part of the reason:

 

The "Mets" name originates from the New York Metropolitans, an 1880s baseball club. They are nicknamed the "Amazin' Mets,"[1] or simply the "Amazins."[1]

[MattZ]

And yes, the Phillies are the better team today, yesterday, and going forward. The best team doesn't always have the best record. There are tons of things that can affect a team's W/L, mostly luck.

 

I agree with some of this, but disagree with most of it. For example, the Patriots were the best team in football last year, but they didn't win the Super Bowl. That being said, they had the best record overall, which, over time will tell you who the best team is. Any team can win one game. The Giants were better on that day. The Patriots were, without doubt, the best team in football last year. More often than not, the best team does have the best record. Its the one-game playoffs or short playoff series where things can get dicey.

 

Of course you are right -- 162 games is the only sample size that matters and 100 games is virtually irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. But I disagree with you that over the course of a long season "luck" is what "mostly" affects a team's W/L. I think over a season of 162 games things like luck tend to even out. Not always, perhaps. But either way, why are you so sure that run differential or ERA are a more important way to evaluate a team when wins are the only thing that matters? If you win every game 8-7 your team has a bad ERA and run differential. Who cares? Is your point that wins in 1 run games are "luck"? Why?

 

EDIT: and at the end of the day, who really cares? I mean, do teams that don't make the playoffs console themselves with the fact that they had a better run differential than the teams that did?

[bjorn_skurj]

Liking the Mets is kind of like liking the Red Sox or Daniel-san in that movie - rooting for the perennial underdog. It is a beneficial thing which Pallas Athena, in Her wisdom, looks upon kindly.

[bobbob1313]

I agree with some of this, but disagree with most of it. For example, the Patriots were the best team in football last year, but they didn't win the Super Bowl. That being said, they had the best record overall, which, over time will tell you who the best team is. Any team can win one game. The Giants were better on that day. The Patriots were, without doubt, the best team in football last year. More often than not, the best team does have the best record. Its the one-game playoffs or short playoff series where things can get dicey.

 

Of course you are right -- 162 games is the only sample size that matters and 100 games is virtually irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. But I disagree with you that over the course of a long season "luck" is what "mostly" affects a team's W/L. I think over a season of 162 games things like luck tend to even out. Not always, perhaps. But either way, why are you so sure that run differential or ERA are a more important way to evaluate a team when wins are the only thing that matters? If you win every game 8-7 your team has a bad ERA and run differential. Who cares? Is your point that wins in 1 run games are "luck"? Why?

 

If you win a higher proportion of 1 run games than would be expected, and you can't define why with statistics, then yeah I'd say that's mostly due to luck. You can call it grit or whatever, but it all means the same thing: Nothing. If you win a higher proportion of any "type" of game, it is probably attributable to luck. Because most of the time, most teams perform exactly the same in 1 run games as they do overall.

 

I don't think I ever said luck is the thing that mostly affects a team's w/l. But if you are overperforming or underperforming your run differential, a good portion of that is probably determined by luck. A win is definitely the only thing that matters, but in predicting the rest of the season (which is all I'm really interested in doing here, there's no point in debating who is better by W/L right now because the 3 teams are, for all intents an purposes even right now), W/L is not the best predictor.

 

And the Patriots are a great example of the best team not winning the playoffs (though football is very different from baseball in this regard.) The best team does generally have the best record, though I would guess in baseball it probably happens no more than 60% of the time. This usually doesn't matter because even if the best team doesn't have the best record, they generally make the playoffs anyways.

 

Either way, discussing record is pretty pointless right now when there are 3 teams within like 2 games of each other because they are, for all intents and purposes tied. Each team's playoff berth depends on their record from here on out (The Marlins have to win 2 more games, but have 2 more games to do it and are at worst, a coin toss from winning or losing both, so it's basically the same thing). And each team is likely to make at least one or two big moves, so really you might be able to throw away the first 100 games in this case.

 

 

And I don't get how rooting for any team that is in the top 5 in baseball payroll is like rooting for an underdog. Because they have inferiority complexes from being in the Yankees shadow? If anything a loyal Marlins fan has to be the biggest underdog rooter ever. Even our own owner is against us.

[bjorn_skurj]

Should be a cracking division title race, eh chums? All three teams have their strengths and weaknesses and fate may well intervene.

[mfwahl]

And I don't get how rooting for any team that is in the top 5 in baseball payroll is like rooting for an underdog. Because they have inferiority complexes from being in the Yankees shadow?