blrssp Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 "I don't think it's necessarily a coin flip, but the better team doesn't generally win every time, which is as it should be. Some teams are better, but just aren't suited to winning in the post season or just flat out run into a hot team or just don't have a couple of bounces go their way." Others who get paid to, have written exhaustively about this topic (Bill James, among others) and much of what they say makes perfect sense when you stop thinking about baseball like the other sports and take it for the unique game that it is. Some issues to consider: in football, the best team usually wins close to 80% of its games, and the worst team usually wins about 20% of its games. In baseball, the best team usually wins about 61% of its games, and the worst teams usually still win close to 40% of its games. In basetball, two great players can transform a team from mediocrity to the best team in the league. In football and basketball, the best teams can simply impose their will on the weaker teams, and will beat the weaker in nearly every instance. In baseball? The Yankees lost 2/3 to the NATIONALS this year. Had this happened in a 5-game playoff series, they'd be staring elimination in the face to the.... Nationals. Winning in the postseason, when all of the teams have won nearly the same amount of games, is mostly based on luck. It's fun, it's exciting, and teams with two aces and a quality back end of the bullpen have a leg up over the competition, but winning an 8-team baseball tournament made up of 5 and 7 game series is not anywhere close to being the best after a 162 game season, insofar as determining who the best team is. Calling it a "coin flip" might be slightly overstating my case, but saying that "nothing matters except in October" takes it much too far the other way, and is a sad reflection of what the sport has become when they started having intra-league playoff series and stopped having the world series be a meeting of the two best regular season teams. In recent years, the Yankees weren't the best team in '96 and won, and they weren't the best team in '00 (though they were better than the Mets, whose awful run differential suggested that they were a barely-above .500 team). The D-backs weren't the best team in '01. The Angels weren't the best in '02. The Marlins weren't the best in '03 and the Red Sox weren't the best in '04. These things happen in baseball. In fact, one could make the argument that the wild card round has been a significant aid for smaller-market teams, since all teams that make the postseason have a roughly equal chance to win the world series. Link to post Share on other sites
bobbob1313 Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 I swear this isn't just me creating an alter ego so I have someone who agrees with me. Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 It's not like blrssp's saying some outlandish stuff. Link to post Share on other sites
rareair Posted September 4, 2009 Share Posted September 4, 2009 the 2003 marlins were the most underrated and overrated world series champions in recent memory. Link to post Share on other sites
bobbob1313 Posted September 5, 2009 Share Posted September 5, 2009 the 2003 marlins were the most underrated and overrated world series champions in recent memory. Overrated because the WS MVP is the most overrated pitcher in baseball and underrated because nobody actually remembers a damn thing about that World Series including the winner?And no, him being a Red Sock doesn't really have anything to do with it (But hey, I get it. Sometimes it's fun to ignore things). It's more because there are many Marlins fans who consider him the greatest pitcher in our history and think he'll be a hall of famer. And also because most people would include him in the discussion for best pitcher in baseball, but he's probably behind at least a dozen, probably. Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted September 5, 2009 Share Posted September 5, 2009 Link to post Share on other sites
Duck-Billed Catechist Posted September 5, 2009 Author Share Posted September 5, 2009 White Sox pitcher Daniel Hudson started the season out at low-A and has been worked his way through 4 levels before making his major league debut tonight. Link to post Share on other sites
The High Heat Posted September 5, 2009 Share Posted September 5, 2009 It's simple. Baseball is a game of series. Win more series than not during the season, the reward is an opportunity to compete for the championship. The team that wins all three series during the post season are champions. Interleague hasn't changed this. The only thing that's changed is the number of playoff rounds a team must win to win a championship. It's always been like this and it will always be this way. Seasonal records and sabermetrics will never amount to a hill of shit when it comes down to "best team" over World Series Champions. "Best team" don't bring home the trophy, the bigger paychecks, the glory, or the history because being the best seasonal team doesn't mean a damn thing if that team isn't on top after World Series game winner #4. The only thing that matters is who takes home the gold. It is the primary and ultimate goal of every organization, manager, player and fan. The regular season is only a bid for the post season. Nothing else. Link to post Share on other sites
The High Heat Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Checking out this thread and a tumbleweed went by. Is the season over already? Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted September 8, 2009 Share Posted September 8, 2009 Naw, it's the calm before the storm really hits. This thread only dies when the WS contenders are decided. Link to post Share on other sites
The High Heat Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 This thread only dies when the WS contenders are decided. Therefore, we're waiting to see how the NL West shakes out and if the Rangers step up to the Angels. Other than that we're all set, barring, of course, a New York Mets style nosedive by one of the current division leaders. Link to post Share on other sites
tugmoose Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Hardly feels like September without a Mets collapse. Link to post Share on other sites
Winston Legthigh Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Hardly feels like September without a Mets collapse.September collapse?? Mets haven't been north of .500 since June! Link to post Share on other sites
bleedorange Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 Therefore, we're waiting to see how the NL West shakes out and if the Rangers step up to the Angels. Other than that we're all set, barring, of course, a New York Mets style nosedive by one of the current division leaders. We're only 2 back of Boston for the Wild Card. 4.5 back of the Angels with 7 games left against them. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Jules Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 I'm pretty much done with baseball for the year. Feels kinda nice. Link to post Share on other sites
Winston Legthigh Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 I'm pretty much done with baseball for the year. Feels kinda nice.I have to wait until the Tigers either blow the division lead, or get stomped by the Yankees. By then Stafford will have shitty stats for the Lions, and the Red Wings' season will have started. Link to post Share on other sites
The High Heat Posted September 9, 2009 Share Posted September 9, 2009 We're only 2 back of Boston for the Wild Card. 4.5 back of the Angels with 7 games left against them.The head-to-head is why the Rangers have a better chance to make the playoffs as a division winner. There's too much to chance when leaving it up to other teams to knock out the Red Sox. The Rangers won 10-0 today. Scott Feldman is now 16-4, with 12 road wins. A pitcher who can win on the road sure would be useful in the playoffs. Link to post Share on other sites
The High Heat Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 The Padres are campaigning for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff to win a Gold Glove. Question: Is Scott Rolen eligible for a Gold Glove in either league/both/none? Link to post Share on other sites
bobbob1313 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 Somehow, we still haven't fallen completely out of it. I feel like it's going to hurt even more when to finish 2 games out than to it would to finish 9 out. But still, 10 games over .500 now on the season. Woo. Link to post Share on other sites
Duck-Billed Catechist Posted September 11, 2009 Author Share Posted September 11, 2009 I don't think there's any sort of technical eligibility issue. I doubt that many sportswriters will vote for him because of the trade. I am not totally sold on any defensive statistic, but Rolen's UZR/150 suggests that he was once elite and now is a little above average. Link to post Share on other sites
bobbob1313 Posted September 11, 2009 Share Posted September 11, 2009 I don't think there's any sort of technical eligibility issue. I doubt that many sportswriters will vote for him because of the trade. I am not totally sold on any defensive statistic, but Rolen's UZR/150 suggests that he was once elite and now is a little above average. At least for outfielders, the scouts and the defensive metrics are starting to come closer together, and I think with defense that's the key. Infielders are still a little trickier because positioning plays a much bigger role in it. Link to post Share on other sites
Kevan Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 espns in-game box score for Twins home games always lists the wind as "-1". Can wind exist as a negative? Vacuum effect? Physics majors? Anyone? Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Stewart Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Congrats to Derek Jeter on banging 2,722 hot chicks, the latest being Minka Kelly. Link to post Share on other sites
Moss Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 Jesus the Rockies are streaky. 2 games behind the dodgers. They beat the crappy teams and lose to the good teams so I'm not that excited but they are making it interesting. Link to post Share on other sites
The High Heat Posted September 12, 2009 Share Posted September 12, 2009 I don't think there's any sort of technical eligibility issue. I doubt that many sportswriters will vote for him because of the trade. I am not totally sold on any defensive statistic, but Rolen's UZR/150 suggests that he was once elite and now is a little above average. Sportswriters do not vote for Gold Glove. The league managers do. I sincerely doubt fellas like Charlie Manuel and Lou Piniella are studying stats that only fantasy-leaguers value. They vote on what they see and reputation, of which Scott Rolen has a damn great one. Kouzmanoff may have only three errors, but it's possible that he's statuesque at the hot corner, grabbing only what's in arm's reach. I don't know. I haven't seen a Padres game since the day Tony Gwynn retired. Link to post Share on other sites
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