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Politics 2016 (election edition)

lost highway

By lost highway,
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KevinG

KevinG

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Crossover voters Dem to Rep is way up in many counties in OH. It will be interesting to see who those votes are for. Kasich may have a big night

 

To me that makes no sense whatsoever.  What makes you think Dem voters would they will vote for Kasich?  The prevailing thought is that either Sanders or Clinton would easily trounce Trump (and probably destroy the GOP as well).  If you are going to switch over why not vote Trump, give him the victory and nomination.  Thus continue to expose the out and out racist, xenophobic, misogynistic characteristics of Trump and the base who now support him?

 

Also even though the polls don't show a close race (54 to 43, Clinton Sanders), and it is a winner take all state, I think it would be important to have a good showing in this state.  Being it is a rust belt / middle America type state.  And this state will be extremely important (if not the most important state) in the general.    Giving Kasich a win now, could lead him to a path of nominee (unlikely sure, but gives him more of a chance then if he lost).  

 

Furthermore, still a loss, 52 to 48 looks a lot better than a 56 to 44 for Sanders and a win and for Clinton a 54 point win looks better then a 51.  

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dagwave

dagwave

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Credit to one of the CNN pundits (hey I did the tour during the Tabernacle shows): Today might be " Goodbye Rubio Tuesday"

 

Oh, and I'm soooo glad  poor demonstrations of violence and unrest 48 years ago makes current times behavior ok, whew, cause, evolution.

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Tweedling

Tweedling

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To me that makes no sense whatsoever. What makes you think Dem voters would they will vote for Kasich? The prevailing thought is that either Sanders or Clinton would easily trounce Trump (and probably destroy the GOP as well). If you are going to switch over why not vote Trump, give him the victory and nomination. Thus continue to expose the out and out racist, xenophobic, misogynistic characteristics of Trump and the base who now support him?

 

Also even though the polls don't show a close race (54 to 43, Clinton Sanders), and it is a winner take all state, I think it would be important to have a good showing in this state. Being it is a rust belt / middle America type state. And this state will be extremely important (if not the most important state) in the general. Giving Kasich a win now, could lead him to a path of nominee (unlikely sure, but gives him more of a chance then if he lost).

 

Furthermore, still a loss, 52 to 48 looks a lot better than a 56 to 44 for Sanders and a win and for Clinton a 54 point win looks better then a 51.

My prediction of Kasich having a big night did not necessarily mean that those Dem crossover votes went to him. (Although I wouldn't be surprised, since he is the governor)

And how did I know it would make no sense to you whatsoever?

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KevinG

KevinG

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My prediction of Kasich having a big night did not necessarily mean that those Dem crossover votes went to him. (Although I wouldn't be surprised, since he is the governor)

And how did I know it would make no sense to you whatsoever?

I didn't question the validity of your statement, I just was confused on why Dem voters are switching (which I explained).

 

Rubio is done. Now we are left with Trump, Cruz and Kasich. I could see Kasich coming out on top.

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lost highway

lost highway

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Rubio is done. Now we are left with Trump, Cruz and Kasich. I could see Kasich coming out on top.

He could only mathematically do it if he won every single remaining delegate. Unless you mean as some sort of contested convention shenanigans. Then I have no idea how it works.

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KevinG

KevinG

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He could only mathematically do it if he won every single remaining delegate. Unless you mean as some sort of contested convention shenanigans. Then I have no idea how it works.

Yeah I am talking about a brokered convention. This is how it works.

 

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/contested-republican-national-convention-work/story?id=37003821

 

Still unlikely, but possible. Saw something where Paul Ryan might be considered. That would be a mess.

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uncool2pillow

uncool2pillow

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I didn't question the validity of your statement, I just was confused on why Dem voters are switching (which I explained).

 

Rubio is done. Now we are left with Trump, Cruz and Kasich. I could see Kasich coming out on top.

 

It would have to happen at the convention.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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KevinG

KevinG

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Trump warns of bad things happening if he isn't the nominee

 

With the increasing violence by his supporters and no calls from Trump to back off (in fact any times encouraging violence).  I could see this happening.  If there is a brokered of contested convention, I am sure there will be fights on the convention floor.  

 

Bob Schieffer on the CBS Morning News recounted a meeting he had with a high ranking (unnamed) GOP senator.  In which the senator said, the Bernie people don't like the Clinton people, the Clinton people don't like the Bernie people.  But within the Republican party the different factions down right hate each other.  

 

Oh an BTW the President is set to nominate someone to the supreme court today.  Can't wait for that shitshow to start again.  

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Sir Stewart

Sir Stewart

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Given that absolutely nothing in terms of conventional wisdom regarding Trump the candidate has played out, how can anyone today claim to believe that he will be easily defeated in the general election?

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LouieB

LouieB

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Nothing can be discounted this year.  When Bernie finally goes down (and comes out and supports Hillary) and his BernieBots refuse to vote for her, then I suppose that it is possible for Trump to win.  Of course plenty of GOPers are also going to stay home when evangelical Cruz is also defeated.  November can't get here soon enough.  Let's hope Obama finally declares marshal law and stays on.  (Joking of course.)

 

LouieB

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KevinG

KevinG

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Well this is not the gay, transgendered, abortion doctor, communist, that they GOP feared, or the progressive left wanted.  

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/merrick-garland-supreme-court-nomination_us_56e85c4ce4b065e2e3d788f0?75nchl2oiqhipsc3di

 

A middle of the road pragmatist.  I think basically a nominee that the Right can't find fault in (but I am sure they will).

 

If the senate stalls until January 2017, I would bet if it is Clinton or Sanders in WH the nominee will not be so moderate.  And if it Pres Trump, God help us.   

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ih8music

ih8music

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He very well might be the only (or one of a few) qualified candidate willing to be nominated at this time. He's going to be used as a political pawn all summer and even if Hillary wins in Nov there's no guarantee that she'd keep his nomination open (in fact, I doubt she would).

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KevinG

KevinG

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He very well might be the only (or one of a few) qualified candidate willing to be nominated at this time. He's going to be used as a political pawn all summer and even if Hillary wins in Nov there's no guarantee that she'd keep his nomination open (in fact, I doubt she would).

 

Like I said.  If the Senate refuses to hold hearings and vote, whatever nominee Clinton puts up will be way more liberal.  McConnell really has choice here.  Either he can back down and hold hearings, or obstruct, and roll the dice after November.  

 

Man McConnell is pretty screwed here.   

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lost highway

lost highway

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The similarity is political jockeying around a Supreme Court nominee.  The difference is many senators were putting up resistance because of one individual judge's beliefs, not because of some re-imagined view of American civics and the constitution.  As McConnell said "It's about a principal, not a person." If Obama filibustered for any reason, it was because of that particular person.

 

Let's not forget that McConnell made up his mind before he knew who might even be in consideration, before he even considered the possibility of their qualities. He's entered into a losing game, if he backs down he looks weak, if Trump wins he won't like much of what Trump does with the party, the court, or the inevitable backlash that will come down on the house seats during the next vote. If he's really lucky he'll dig in his heels and then Hillary will come in and appoint someone more progressive than Garland.

 

When your only offering is obstruction at some point you shoot yourself in the foot.

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LouieB

LouieB

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Polls and pols.....I doubt most people really care about this.  Even though the supposed majority thinks this should be moved forward, your average American has little idea of who sits on the Supreme Court and what they do.  Dragging this out may not amount to anything in the long run.  I just feel a bit sorry for this guy since I am sure he is a serious jurist.

 

LouieB

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calvino

calvino

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Garland knows what he is getting himself into.

 

I just wish McConnell would come up with a different refrain - it has nothing to do with the American voices - it's just the exact opposite, he doesn't care what the American voices have to say. Just say that.

 

It's all coming to a head now - the past 20 years or so of the built up resentment between the two parties. Hopefully, after this year's election, it all boils over and not too many people on this earth gets scolded and we get back to normalcy, where we always disagreed, but things moved along, always slowly, but at least it moved along. Both sides have to move, though.

 

I have feeling it will take at least another 4 years, though.

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KevinG

KevinG

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I just wish McConnell would come up with a different refrain - it has nothing to do with the American voices - it's just the exact opposite, he doesn't care what the American voices have to say. Just say that.

 

My Senator (Ron Johnson - WI) actually said that he would feel differently about a SCOTUS nominee if a conservative was president

 

http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/ron-johnson-would-be-more-likely-to-accommodate-a-conservative/article_0609b89a-f59b-57e0-b541-e00c77e65bd5.html

 

If anyone thinks this is anything but politics at this point and is about letting the American people decide.  

 

I have heard the line now, the pick is about keeping balance to the court.  I guess that is why GHW Bush picked the flaming liberal Clarence Thomas to replace Thurgood Marshall.   

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