It's time for a New Election Thread

[Central Scrutinizer]

From the "Don't count your juvenile poultry before the proper process of incubation has been full materalized" Department, or MSNBC (and it's not by Olberman):

 

Cook: Metrics add up for Obama

ANALYSIS By Charlie Cook, National Journal

 

WASHINGTON - One of the most unsettling aspects of this campaign is that for an election cycle so turbulent, with so many surprising twists and turns, over the last few days it suddenly has had the feel of concrete setting. Just seven or eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama had a lead over Sen. John McCain, but it hardly seemed sure; we wondered, is this lead real, is it durable?

 

But today it seems very unlikely that the focal point of this election is going to shift away from the economy. And as long as the economy is the focal point, it's difficult to see how this gets any better for Republicans up or down the ballot. It's sobering to think of the magnitude an event would have to have to pull voters' minds off the economy, the credit markets that have seized up, the stock market that has been pummeled, the values of their 401(k) and other retirement plans that have plummeted. How can an election that was so volatile now suddenly seem to be so inevitable?

 

At this point it would be difficult to see Republican losses in the Senate and House to be fewer than seven and 20 respectively. A very challenging situation going into September turned into a meltdown last month, the most dire predictions for the GOP early on became the most likely outcome.

 

The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it's only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn't that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one. First, no candidate behind this far in the national polls, this late in the campaign has come back to win. Sure, we have seen come-from-behind victories, but they didn't come back this far this late.

 

Second, early voting has made comebacks harder and would tend to diminish the impact of the kind of late-breaking development that might save McCain's candidacy. With as many as one-third of voters likely to cast their ballot before Election Day, every day more are cast and the campaign is effectively over for them. The longer Obama has this kind of lead and the more votes are cast early, the more voters are out of the pool for McCain.

 

Third, considering that 89 percent of all voters who identified themselves as Democrats voted for John Kerry four years ago and 93 percent of Republicans cast their ballots for George W. Bush, the switch from parity between the parties to a 10-point Democratic advantage would seem to almost seal this outcome irrespective of the candidates fielded on each side. The unprecedented surges seen in Democratic party registrations in those states that require party affiliations confirm that.

 

Fourth, just look at the money and spending. With Obama now outspending McCain routinely by margins of 3- and 4-to-1 in advertising in so many states, it's hard to see how the Arizonan's campaign can drive a message. For a time, Obama was matching McCain one for one in negative advertising, then spending double or triple on top of that in positive advertising. Now Obama seems primarily doing positive ads, probably the right move given his lead going into this final stretch. Organizationally, it's hard to find any state where McCain is organized as well as President Bush was four years ago or Obama is today, a product of both money and enthusiasm.

 

Fifth, while many are talking about the so-called "Bradley effect," voters telling pollsters that they will vote for an African-American candidate when they won't, putting aside the question of whether it ever existed, it hasn't been seen in at least 15 years and the likely surge in turnout among African-American and young people seems sufficient to offset it anyway.

 

Finally there are the states. Obama is now leading in every state that Al Gore and John Kerry both won, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and he is ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico, the three states that went once but not twice for Democrats in 2000 and 2004. He is also ahead in Florida, Colorado and Virginia. If that weren't enough (and it is), he's running basically even in Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio, and even threatening in Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

 

As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.

 

Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big.

[Good Old Neon]

Abortion and gay marriage... Tired of this debate.

 

He is not pro abortion. He/they are saying it is your choice. You can choose for or against. Why tell those for it that they can't? Those for it are saying you have to, if that were the case...duh! No more kids.

 

Gay marriage. We are protecting what?

 

I would like to go on record as stating that I am staunchly Pro Abortion

[Central Scrutinizer]

One analysis notes that, as cell-phone-only households have tripled since the 2004 election, "Polls probably undercounting Obama's support"

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27196636/

[kwall]

Keeping governmentout of the issue is being in favor of government involvement? Interesting. Roe v Wade is not government involvmment by the way, it is a decision regarding government involvment and infringing on a right to privacy, which Sarah Palin says we all have, so she agrees with it.

i don't take issue with the right to privacy. i take issue with the notion that we're allowed to kill people in private.

[Sir Stewart]

One analysis notes that, as cell-phone-only households have tripled since the 2004 election, "Polls probably undercounting Obama's support"

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27196636/

 

Yeah that same point was being argued in 2004 for Kerry.

[Sweet Papa Crimbo]

I would like to go on record as stating that I am staunchly Pro Abortion

[John Smith]

Right, but you asked if the Catholic church was officially endorsing candidates.

 

It appears some priests may be advocating voting for a particular candidate. There is not a church-wide endorsement.

 

Most parishes/diocese (sp?) are silent, but the few who have the bishops and priest speaking out endorsing a candidate are essentially statting an official position. The Catholic church, as you well know, is a patriarchal top down organization. With the pope at the top and the parishioners at the bottom. If a bishop, a mid to upper level manager to non-catholics, states a position, it, to my understanding from growing up in the church, is the defacto position of that particular diocese. Granted in America we don't generally follow all the rules and teachings of the church, but regardless of what the lay people might think, they still are the rules and the guidance handed down from on high is still official guidance.

 

That all being said there are so many one issue voters for whom abortion is the only issue they vote on, I'm sure we all know at least one person who falls into this category. But sadly they look at one issue and ignore all the rest. Even more so the abortion issue voters (and it goes both ways here but I'm focusing on the anti-choice voters) pick their candidate they vote and they frequently do so for religious reasons. Yet they never ever seem to look and see how a candidate's life how his policies how hisa ctula actions line up with the teachings of christ, which are supposed to be the source of heir inspriaion to vote in the first place. If people had truely and realistically looked at Bush form this perspective he should not have gotten the votes to win. I sitll say to this day that bush's religious convictions are a fiction used as an election ploy to garner votes. And I still fully believe that the ministers who back Bush do so because there is a direct financial interest for them through tax cuts for the upper brackets, and legalized kickbacks through the so called faith based initiatives. These people should get back to the old notion of rendering unto ceasar...

 

By the way I am against abortion, but I am more against having governemnt intrusion into private matters.

[Good Old Neon]

Early Christmas winter solistice gift for ya J Nick

 

 

 

Ohhhh

[hazel]

i have been down today thinking about the election, i know obama is up in polls, but i can't help but think mccain/palin=unstable/unable still might win. its tightening up a little. joe had to go put his foot in his mouth again, dammit joe! i really like joe but please just a little bit longer!!! that has me worried, i am a worry wart, i worry about everything and this is effecting me physically. i have lost my appetite. i can only watch cnn/msnbc, fox makes my blood pressure go up so try not to watch them. hearing mccain talk is like nails on a chalkboard and same with the bimbo.

 

they have divided this county in half like never before with their fucking terrorist talk, lies and negativity. they have these people believing this stuff. anyway i just wanted to vent. my kids are sick of me talking about it.

 

just look how ignorant these people are, unbelievable,....sidewalk to nowhere......

 

[jakobnicholas]

Early Christmas winter solistice gift for ya J Nick

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks!

 

 

 

Now me and you can have matching bags.

[Central Scrutinizer]

One would also think that the influx of newly registered voters would be a sure sign that Obama has it in the bag.

 

But then I think back to 1972.

 

The youth vote is not monolithic. The Minority vote may be (has been in the past).

 

I think Obama wins this going away...but I won't bet the house on it.

I think you have a double-whammy -- both an outgrowth of that youth vote. (EDIT: O.K. triple-whammy)

 

1) That beyond young adults, cell-phone-only households have grown at a similar percentage.

2) Even for landlines, in the wake of the Do Not Call lists, the most likely person to pick up and follow through on a poll call are older adults.

3) Early voting enables votes to get recorded now, while polls are showing a solid edge for Obama. The Obama organization is being vigilant about encouraging early votes, including rides to polls.

 

What I haven't heard much about with the increased advent of early voting is whether votes are recorded early as well, and how sealed is this information, so that a clerk can't encourage a trailing party of what they need to make up the difference.

[ih8music]

The Catholic church never said they want people to vote for McCain specifically. They never endorsed him as a candidate. They can urge parishioners to vote a certain way on certain issues, but they can't specifically endorse a party or candidate.

 

Our church has a "Vote no on proposal 2" sign out front, but they couldn't have a McCain or Obama sign out there. They could put a pro-life sign out there if they were so inclined.

 

Our church as always urged voters to look at the whole picture, unless you are a one issue (abortion) voter, then pro-life wins.

Our priest is walking the tightrope this election. While he legally can't tell us specifically who/what to vote for, he's all but saying Catholics have to vote for Republicans because of the abortion issue alone. If I had the time & desire to debate him about it, I'd love to hear him rationalize the other aspects of the republican plaform and explain to me how that jibes with the teachings of Christ.

[ih8music]

You guys are like baby birds

A poll might have been easier!

[jakobnicholas]

Our priest is walking the tightrope this election. While he legally can't tell us specifically who/what to vote for, he's all but saying Catholics have to vote for Republicans because of the abortion issue alone. If I had the time & desire to debate him about it, I'd love to hear him rationalize the other aspects of the republican plaform and explain to me how that jibes with the teachings of Christ.

 

 

I'm a lifelong Catholic, attend every week, and can honestly say I have NEVER heard a priest mention a political party, let alone a specific candidate. I have heard a few sermons that discussed abortion, but NEVER in a context of anything political...it was always in the context of the church advocating sanctity of life and/or for church-goers to pray for babies and for mothers.

[Good Old Neon]

...I'd love to hear him rationalize the other aspects of the republican plaform and explain to me how that jibes with the teachings of Christ.

 

It

[Sweet Papa Crimbo]

Ohhhh

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

I think you have a double-whammy -- both an outgrowth of that youth vote. (EDIT: O.K. triple-whammy)

 

1) That beyond young adults, cell-phone-only households have grown at a similar percentage.

2) Even for landlines, in the wake of the Do Not Call lists, the most likely person to pick up and follow through on a poll call are older adults.

3) Early voting enables votes to get recorded now, while polls are showing a solid edge for Obama. The Obama organization is being vigilant about encouraging early votes, including rides to polls.

 

What I haven't heard much about with the increased advent of early voting is whether votes are recorded early as well, and how sealed is this information, so that a clerk can't encourage a trailing party of what they need to make up the difference.

There is at least one pollster who agrees with you:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann...ty-turnout.html

[explodo]

I'm a lifelong Catholic, attend every week, and can honestly say I have NEVER heard a priest mention a political party, let alone a specific candidate. I have heard a few sermons that discussed abortion, but NEVER in a context of anything political...it was always in the context of the church advocating sanctity of life and/or for church-goers to pray for babies and for mothers.

I went to Catholic mass two weeks ago and two of the maybe five petitions were advocating for the Republican party, more or less. One was to protect the rights of the unborn, and I'm more than okay with that one (this is the example of less) being mentioned in church. The next one was for people to make good choices during the election season, with both abortion and abstinence being mentioned (this is the example of more). It is very hard for that second one not be read as vote for McCain because they didn't mention keeping our troops safe and alive (or civilians, for that matter), they didn't mention putting an end to torture, etc. You can't advocate for all of the right's positions, advocate against the left's, and then suggest that you are staying out of it.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

I don't want to jinx anything here, but Virginia is on the brink of voting a democrat into the white house for the first time since 1964. i am sure it is not a coincidence that caliber and i just happened to move here this year.

 

hm?

 

you're welcome.

You must be from the Communist section of VA.

[Central Scrutinizer]

There is at least one pollster who agrees with you:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann...ty-turnout.html

Thanks for posting that. I think even with her novel approach, predicting the youth vote is like nailing jello to a ballot.

 

Obviously, comparing 2004 to 2008 is a problem because, while Kerry enjoyed some success against the youth vote, there isn't the buy-in as there is with Obama. You consider how the comfort with cellular, wireless and Internet technology have grown exponentially in the past four years, compared to the prior 8 years, and I think each of the polls is like the analogy of the blind people trying to describe an elephant (no political pun intended).

 

While she had luck predicting the primaries, the actual election will be the real test for her system.

[ih8music]

I'm a lifelong Catholic, attend every week, and can honestly say I have NEVER heard a priest mention a political party, let alone a specific candidate. I have heard a few sermons that discussed abortion, but NEVER in a context of anything political...it was always in the context of the church advocating sanctity of life and/or for church-goers to pray for babies and for mothers.

This is the 3rd parish I've been a member of in my lifetime, and it is the first time I've heard it put so blatantly. I think his line was something to the effect of "One party supports God's teachings. You should consider that on election day." This was after he talked about the tragedy of abortion and how all Catholics should do everything they can to protect the lives of the unborn.

 

I actually have no problem with a lot of what he said - it's his duty as a priest to advocate the Church's teachings and relate those teachings to our daily lives. And every 4 years, the presidential race becomes an important aspect of our lives, and we should use our moral beliefs (or, more generically, our sense of what's right and wrong) to inform our political decision. Where he crossed the line is when he stated that the Republican party was somehow the only party that supported God's teachings - and, by inference, the Democratic party was therefore against God. His view of morality came across as being severly myopic in that he did not account for the immorality of unnecessary wars, torture, poverty, lack of affordable healthcare, etc. in his views. It's all about abortion to him, nothing else matters.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

i have been down today thinking about the election, i know obama is up in polls, but i can't help but think mccain/palin=unstable/unable still might win. its tightening up a little. joe had to go put his foot in his mouth again, dammit joe! i really like joe but please just a little bit longer!!! that has me worried, i am a worry wart, i worry about everything and this is effecting me physically. i have lost my appetite. i can only watch cnn/msnbc, fox makes my blood pressure go up so try not to watch them. hearing mccain talk is like nails on a chalkboard and same with the bimbo.

 

they have divided this county in half like never before with their fucking terrorist talk, lies and negativity. they have these people believing this stuff. anyway i just wanted to vent. my kids are sick of me talking about it.

 

just look how ignorant these people are, unbelievable,....sidewalk to nowhere......

 

FYI, I am going to roll this into the regular election thread. We have plenty of these types of clips there as well.

[ZenLunatic]

I think Obama is actually gaining in the polls and as long as the economy stays stressed, Obama will continue gaining. Just favors him in this situation.

 

Worst case scenario that McCain wins, I believe America will still improve greatly from its current state. McCain isnt better than Obama, but he isn't that bad. I would be greatly disappointed myself if Obama loses, but its no reason to get yourself sick over.

 

About 2 more weeks, My best advice would be to get your mind off the election cause I think it effects you too much. I truely believe McCain will NOT win so no need for your worries.

[lost highway]

It's all about abortion to him, nothing else matters.

 

It is amazing to me; so many people have been swayed by this one issue and their candidate has been helpless to deliver the goods (thankfully in my eyes). It's incredible to me the lengths people will go to, to protest abortion itself, without ever lifting a finger to support programs/education that could stop the need for abortion.

 

The religious-conservative family planning model has been a historic force in increasing poverty. At least most Catholics now have made themselves comfortable with birth control.

[John Smith]

The whole Joe put his foot in his mouth is really not accurate. Staunch republican and McCain supporter Joe Lieberman said the same thing not too long ago. Of course he was saying it in terms of mccain being better able to handle the test, but the same thing has been said on both sides fo the line.