bleedorange Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Read this, interesting how the Rust belt is gonna play a huge roll. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/how-donald-trump-becomes-president_us_56cb5429e4b0928f5a6c9ead NAFTA and TPP are going to be issues for Clinton. Played around (and I know it is early) with some electoral math and of course the first one I came up with was a 269 to 269 tie http://www.270towin.com/maps/5n04d That would be a shit show. Interesting read. Thanks for the link! It still has the feeling of a "perfect storm" set of circumstances for Trump to win, but the fact that a chance exists at all is a little frightening. Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Heartbreak Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The 269-269 split is always an interesting prospect to contemplate...but I doubt the Rs can pull off a clean sweep of VA, PA, OH, and both Carolinas. Link to post Share on other sites
tinnitus photography Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 also, that map link was interesting... it certainly does make one feel at times that one's vote doesn't count, but of course it does unless everyone thinks that way. Link to post Share on other sites
KevinG Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It still has the feeling of a "perfect storm" set of circumstances for Trump to win, but the fact that a chance exists at all is a little frightening. It's funny, I don't know if it is the social circles I run in, or the town I live in (Madison WI), or what, but I have not run across one person who supports Trump (actively or inactively). I haven't seen any Trump bumper stickers and or yard signs. Heck, even the right leaning members of this board seem to be resoundly anti-Trump. Not to say he doesn't have support, he clearly does. It will be interesting to see what is going to happen if Trump does get the nomination, what will the establishment do? What will moderate Republicans do? Link to post Share on other sites
uncool2pillow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 also, that map link was interesting... it certainly does make one feel at times that one's vote doesn't count, but of course it does unless everyone thinks that way.I think the number of opponents each candidates has faced makes this a pretty irrelevant tweet. Link to post Share on other sites
tinnitus photography Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 just read the last 3 sentences. Link to post Share on other sites
KevinG Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That sure is a nice "meme" but of course it does not take in account delegate counts (and delegate math), which is what really matters here. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/us/politics/delegate-count-leaving-bernie-sanders-with-steep-climb.html?_r=0 Clinton is in a far better position going forward. Yes things could certainly change, but the momentum is in her favor. And it will be really tough to be beat Trump at this point http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/23/politics/republican-delegate-math/ (warning auto play) What will matter most of all for Trump is he needs to get 51% of the delegates, if he doesn't there will be a brokered convention with delegate swapping at this point Trump will run as a Third Party. Yes the vote percentages (and actual votes cast) don't really matter, it is all about the delegates, like the electoral college. In many cases if a person wins by .01% the could get all of the delegates or electoral college votes. In presidential elections we have had it happen 4 times (J. Q. Adams -1824; Hayes - 1876; B. Harrison - 1888; G.W. Bush 2000). I am sure in there is statistics on delegates and popular votes but that is a bit messy to wade through. Link to post Share on other sites
tinnitus photography Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 That sure is a nice "meme" but of course it does not take in account delegate counts (and delegate math), which is what really matters here. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/us/politics/delegate-count-leaving-bernie-sanders-with-steep-climb.html?_r=0 Clinton is in a far better position going forward. Yes things could certainly change, but the momentum is in her favor. Clinton's 'far better' position was substantial better 6+ weeks ago. Link to post Share on other sites
KevinG Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Clinton's 'far better' position was substantial better 6+ weeks ago. absolutely correct, like I mentioned things could change. Bernie could still win the nomination, but the road he has to take and the states he has to win make it a lot tougher for him. I just don't see the southern states and the African American votes going his way. He really needed to win Nevada and because of his loss (as narrow as it was) it hurt him. Is it inevitable that Clinton wins the nomination, of course not. Is it increasingly likely, yes. Link to post Share on other sites
John Smith Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Republicans held both houses and the presidency when Taft was nominated. Link to post Share on other sites
Atticus Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I can't recall ever subscribing to a conspiracy theory in my life, but I am becoming more and more paranoid that Clinton will win the nomination regardless of how Americans vote. Link to post Share on other sites
LouieB Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Conspiracy? There is no conspiracy. It's all out in the open. Aside from the super delegate issue (remember Bernie is not a member of the Democratic Party), Hillary is going to do reasonably well in many of the primaries coming up. Everyone needs to get out and vote and not be cowed by what seems to be any candidate's momentum or lack thereof. It is important that Bernie supporters vote; his influence on this race even if he doesn't win, is terribly important. BTW being president of the US of A is a shitty job. It is a no win situation. LouieB Link to post Share on other sites
Atticus Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I already voted. Hillary winning the nomination doesn't scare me nearly as much as the remotest possibility that Ted Cruz could become president. The fact that anyone even supports him scares the shit out of me. Link to post Share on other sites
jff Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Same here. Let's just hope Trump doesn't choose Cruz as a running mate, then win, then quit, making Cruz president. To my mind, there is nothing implausible about this scenario. Link to post Share on other sites
KevinG Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Same here. Let's just hope Trump doesn't choose Cruz as a running mate, then win, then quit, making Cruz president. To my mind, there is nothing implausible about this scenario. Why would Trump choose someone who is not eligible to be president (his words not mine) as VP? Also I think Trump real dislikes Cruz. Of course I think everyone dislikes Cruz. If anything he would probably pick a woman, to soften his misogynistic side and to take away votes from Hillary. Also probably someone in politics a governor (more than likely a battleground state as well). My first inclination would be Nikki Haley, but she endorsed Rubio. Or maybe a Susana Martinez, gov of NM and Hispanic. Rubio would be an interesting choice as well, but of Trump has questioned his eligibility as well. Who knows. The man is really unhinged, he very well might pick Sarah Palin. Cause why the hell not. Link to post Share on other sites
calvino Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Maybe in CO everyone can bring a smoke, sit around and talk about the candidates . At the end of the meeting hopefully everyone remembers who they were going to vote for and sits in the respective candidates' areas. (I really have no idea how caucuses work) Link to post Share on other sites
KevinG Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Can someone explain how this caucus stuff works? Apparently, there's no "primary" in CO, but a caucus in lieu, which I've heard is like a town meeting or something, you can't just go and pull a lever/push a button.... My understanding is that your entire district (or those who want their voice heard) go to a public place (school gym) and then people give speeches etc. about specific candidates. Once that is done people who like the same candidate group together and are counted. The candidate with the most people win that district. The winner of the most districts wins the state (and or delegates). Wisconsin is a primary state, so I have never done one. I think there are some posters here who live in Iowa that participated, they might be able to help. In lieu of that here is a story from NPR. http://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464960979/how-do-the-iowa-caucuses-work Link to post Share on other sites
tinnitus photography Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Trump will either pick Tom Brady or Ted Nugent as his running mate. Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Seems like a load of crap for people who have their minds made already.... Thanks for the response(s), even though I deleted my post (I just discovered "Google" recently).... Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Trump will either pick Tom Brady or Ted Nugent as his running mate.He could go with George Zimmerman and likely still win..... Link to post Share on other sites
Doug C Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I don't think Trump is "unhinged", "nuts", "a Fascist", etc. He is very calculating. Trump says things that he doesn't really believe and wouldn't actually do. He has simply hit on what seems to be a winning formula and is both running with it and having fun with it. I am convinced that he and his inner circle sit around after events and appearances drinking scotch and laughing their asses off at what he said and how well it was received. Link to post Share on other sites
tinnitus photography Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 i've said that for a while now, that Andy Kaufman would be proud of Trump's campaign. Link to post Share on other sites
Lammycat Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 i've said that for a while now, that Andy Kaufman would be proud of Trump's campaign.Really cool interview/article on Kaufman, particularly his first "gig" in '74 at The Improv in NYC:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/28/bob-zmuda-tells-truth-about-andy-kaufmans-death/?page=all Link to post Share on other sites
Doug C Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 This morning on NPR, I heard Trump's Nevada victory speech. When he said, "I love the poorly educated!", and the poorly educated cheered, I laughed and actually yelled, "Trump!". You know that the moment he and his boys got off that stage and in a private area, they were busting a gut. Link to post Share on other sites
tinnitus photography Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Really cool interview/article on Kaufman, particularly his first "gig" in '74 at The Improv in NYC:http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/28/bob-zmuda-tells-truth-about-andy-kaufmans-death/?page=allthank you for that. Link to post Share on other sites
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