It's time for a New Election Thread

[Party @ the Moontower]

"soul dancer"

 

weird

 

Even better!I'm going to have to put this one on the wall.

[Sir Stewart]

I sure wish there were bigger copies of this Thriller image out there on the web - I think this has so much potential (first draft):

[jakobnicholas]

Karl Rove (from the Wall Street Journal):

 

 

In the campaign's final two weeks, voters will take a last serious look at both presidential candidates. The outcome of the race isn't cast in stone yet.

 

Barack Obama holds a 7.3% lead in the Real Clear Politics average of all polls, but the latest Gallup tracking poll reveals that there are nearly twice as many undecided voters this year than there were in the last presidential election. The Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll (which was closest to the mark in predicting the 2004 outcome -- 0.4% off the actual result) now says this is a three-point race.

 

This week also brought a reminder that Sen. Obama hasn't closed the sale. The Washington Post/ABC poll found 45% of voters still don't think he's qualified to be president, about the same number who doubted his qualifications in March.

 

This is seven points more than George W. Bush's highest reading in 2000 and the worst since Michael Dukakis's 56% unqualified rating in 1988. It explains why Mr. Obama has ignored Democratic giddiness and done two things to keep victory from slipping away.

 

First, he is using his money to try to keep John McCain from gaining traction. The Obama campaign raised $67 million in September and may be on track to raise $100 million in October. Sen. McCain opted last month for roughly $85 million in public financing, giving him less than half of Mr. Obama's funds for the campaign's final two months. Even with robust Republican National Committee fund raising to augment his spending, Mr. McCain is at a severe financial disadvantage.

 

So Mr. Obama is spending $35 million on TV this week versus the McCain/RNC total of $17 million. Mr. Obama is outspending Mr. McCain on TV in Virginia by a ratio of 4 to 1, in Florida by 3 to 1, and in Missouri and Nevada by better than 2 to 1. The disparity is likely to grow in the campaign's final weeks.

 

Money alone, however, won't decide the contest. John Kerry and the Democrats outspent Mr. Bush and the GOP in 2004 by $121 million and still lost.

 

Mr. Obama's other strategy is to do all he can to look presidential, including buying very expensive half-hour slots to address the country next week. He wants to give a serious, Oval-Office type address. This is smart. People appreciate Mr. Obama's empathy on the economy, but as they take a long look at what he wants to do about it, they will be less impressed, especially if Mr. McCain draws sharp contrasts with clear policy proposals.

 

Mr. Obama is trying to make the case that his lack of experience or record should not disqualify him. But in doing so, he seems to recognize that the U.S. is still a center-right country. His TV ads promise tax cuts and his radio ads savage Mr. McCain's health-care plan as a tax increase. It's a startling campaign conversion for the most liberal member of the Senate. We'll know on Election Day if he is able to get away with it.

 

Similarly, Mr. McCain appears to be making three important course corrections. First, he and Gov. Sarah Palin are sharpening their stump speeches so their sound bites come off well on TV. Gone are offhand remarks and awkward comments read from notes perched on a podium. In are teleprompters and carefully crafted arguments. Mr. McCain is also more at ease than before and has an ebullient, come-from-behind underdog optimism that will serve him well in the final weeks.

 

Second, Mr. McCain is shaping a story line that draws on well-founded concerns about Mr. Obama's lack of record or experience. Mr. McCain is also bowing to reality and devoting most of his time to the economy. His narrative is he's the conservative reformer who'll lead and work hard to get things done, while Mr. Obama is the tax-and-spend liberal who's unprepared to lead and unwilling to act.

 

Mr. McCain is hitting Mr. Obama for wanting to raise taxes in difficult economic times, especially on small business and for the purpose of redistributing income, and for having lavish spending plans at a time when the economy is faltering. He's criticizing Mr. Obama for lingering on the sidelines while Mr. McCain dove in to help pass a rescue plan, necessary no matter how distasteful. And he's attacking Mr. Obama for not joining the fight in 2005 when reformers like Mr. McCain tried to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

Mr. McCain's other adjustment is his schedule. His campaign understands the dire circumstances it faces and is narrowing his travels almost exclusively to Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. If he carries those states, while losing only Iowa and New Mexico from the GOP's 2004 total, Mr. McCain will carry 274 Electoral College votes and the White House. It's threading the needle, but it's come to that.

 

This task, while not impossible, will be difficult. By mid-September, the McCain camp was slightly ahead in the polls. Then came the financial crisis. The past month has taken an enormous toll on the McCain campaign.

 

Whether it can find the right formula in the next 19 days to dig out is a question. If Mr. McCain succeeds, he will have engineered the most impressive and improbable political comeback since Harry Truman in 1948. But having to reach back more than a half-century for inspiration is not the place campaign managers want to be now.

[kwall]

This task, while not impossible, will be difficult. By mid-September, the McCain camp was slightly ahead in the polls. Then came the financial crisis. The past month has taken an enormous toll on the McCain campaign.

if i remember correctly, the palin interviews starting taking a toll on his numbers even before the financial crisis hit. she's his biggest problem.

[Spawn's dad]

Way back when, before there was a nominee, I thought (and stated) that if the democrats ran Hilary or Obama, McCain would

run away with it. Things have shifted in a way variety of ways since then, but bringing Palin basically killed any chance he

had of winning. It was a huge error of judgment on his part, and was demonstrative of his inability to run the country.

[uncool2pillow]

Karl Rove (from the Wall Street Journal):

Say what you will about this man, he is smart. That's pretty great analysis.

[myboyblue]

Say what you will about this man, he is smart. That's pretty great analysis.

Oh yes, totally fair and balanced

[kwall]

It was a huge error of judgment on his part, and was demonstrative of his inability to run the country.

yep. it'd probably be neck and neck right now had he picked anyone else. he's an idiot.

[embiggen]

Karl Rove may be smart, but he is "half satan", if you know what I mean.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

if i remember correctly, the palin interviews starting taking a toll on his numbers even before the financial crisis hit. she's his biggest problem.

Yeah, there was a Palin bounce and then the burst of the Palin bubble.

 

I'm not sure that I buy this "hasn't closed the deal" business. I kept reading it during the primary. What would closing the deal mean, exactly? A 10 point lead? Really, no one closes the deal till election day.

[MrRain422]

Yeah, I think the deal is about as closed as it could be at this point, which is to say that Obama has a pretty solid lead in most national polls and is opening leads in some key states, but we're still a few weeks out and things could change. I can't imagine a scenerio in which Obama could be expected to be leading by more than he is.

[PopTodd]

yep. it'd probably be neck and redneck right now had he picked anyone else. he's an idiot.

[Good Old Neon]

The Daily Kos is echoing my suspicions w/r/t the veracity of Joe the Plumber:

 

Say It Isn

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

Why would he be in the yellowpages if he doesn't own the business?

[myboyblue]

Why would he be in the yellowpages if he doesn't own the business?

these guys seem to have found him pretty easy:

 

MSNBC video - interviews with Joe

[Winston Legthigh]

Karl Rove may be smart, but he is "half satan", if you know what I mean.

Which half????

[kwall]

... he isn

[MrRain422]

The question over his voter registration has been cleared up -- Joe is his middle name, not his first name, and that's why they couldn't find him. I saw him being interviewed on MSNBC earlier this morning (lord help me, I really hope I find a job soon) and based on what he said, I do doubt he's really undecided (he railed against Social Security and people who suggest that America isn't perfect), so the whole centrist undecided voter angle is probably bullshit, but he's a real guy.

 

huh? acorn hasn't gotten to him yet? oh, wait, he's not a democrat. nevermind.

 

Do you know anything about ACORN other than the McCain talking points? I hate to make such an accusation, but everything you've posted on the matter points right to it.

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

these guys seem to have found him pretty easy:

 

MSNBC video - interviews with Joe

So his shirt seems to say Newell Plumbing.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%...mp;aq=f&oq=

[kwall]

Do you know anything about ACORN other than the McCain talking points? I hate to make such an accusation, but everything you've posted on the matter points right to it.

i'm not sure i even know what the mccain talking points are. all i know is what i've read surrounding the recent controversy.

 

btw, that post is the sum total of everything i've posted on the matter, so maybe you've got me confused with someone else.

[myboyblue]

So his shirt seems to say Newell Plumbing.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%...mp;aq=f&oq=

 

We broke the conspiracy wide open!!

 

 

oh, and this guy's views on things are a bit underwhelming. Hilarious to see him become a 'media' focus.

[Sir Stewart]

Biden: Joe

[Duck-Billed Catechist]

He's not a working man's plumber because his business is too profitable .

 

I would say (knowing nothing about anything) that it seems somewhat unlikely that a 2 man plumbing operation takes in $250,000 in profit. I guess his plan was to expand, hire more staff, and eventually make that much.

[Spawn's dad]

I bet he's got the crack to prove it.

[Good Old Neon]

The question over his voter registration has been cleared up -- Joe is his middle name, not his first name, and that's why they couldn't find him. I saw him being interviewed on MSNBC earlier this morning (lord help me, I really hope I find a job soon) and based on what he said, I do doubt he's really undecided (he railed against Social Security and people who suggest that America isn't perfect), so the whole centrist undecided voter angle is probably bullshit, but he's a real guy.

 

I don